The stock market will not rally unless the 10 year note stops its fall, nobody knows how low it will go right now. 5.40? 5.50? 5.75? The market hates uncertainties.
I'll be the first to tell you I think the Dow will have a monster year end rally...probably up to 15,000.. Meantime, we should see a nice summer doldrum, moving the markets sharply lower, increasing volatility, etc.. Forget the talking heads, and the talking Feds and the talking former Feds.. the markets will do the talking... No rate hikes are likely coming, but the markets are now pricing in perfection - no rate hikes will be uber bullish then..
Agreed for the most part (not sure on those exact numbers, but will concur with the movement). Nice boring summer, going to have to sing for your supper for the next several months. Fed ain't going to do shit and I still am amazed the bond boys stayed pat as long as they did. So much for the bond markets being comprised of the "smart" ones.
Welp...clearly I was wrong about stocks falling thru the floor...they did fall, and I was good for about 9 pts..but ended up getting stopped out this afternoon... ah, the markets can be cruel... if 1531.25 breaks, we could go to the fuckin moon...
IMO the DOW will drop from the current 140 points up by at least 50 points by EOD. Followed by a continued drop tomorrow.
Beige book gift today on "good things". Selling all DDM and going back to more DXD at sessions lows for tomorrow's hopeful downturn. Friday will be crazy with triple witching and Bernanke. Love the volatility....