The second shoe has dropped on the housing market. MBS issuance is nil, POs are exploding and IOs imploding. The last glimmer of hope was a slow economy would push us into another refi-cycle. We'll slow, but at a 5-7% CPI. China is done buying-up the US.
I love no risk markets!!! Time to leverage up again, if the media or expert analysts says there's no risk one can't go wrong!
Good observation. If you look look at historical patterns (of course, now could be different) then we needed more than just fear from hikes. We needed - actual rate hikes, not just fear of hikes and (!) - imploding corporate profit margins to actually tank (~20%) historically rather than correct a couple percent and then chop and churn away. Corporate scandals and SEC investigations help, too. I agree that with every tick down in the ZN/ZB the market builds an expectation towards a hike. Just playing devil's advocate, now what if there's no hike this year and no mention of any? What if earnings don't implode Q2, Q3? Or even worse to play, we get a hike in fall and earnings explode to the upside?
Dropping 2.5% equates to "falling thru the floor"? I can't imagine what life would be like for a lot of people here if the SP500 dropped 6% in one day. 3/4 of you would be wiped out in 24 hrs
Every drop in S&P, lots of people presume recession is coming.... Tired of pessimism, keep long positions until little voices of short. Forgive me against your side.
Don't know exactly about the record. But when the indices crashed in the beginning of this year the S&P did waay over 3 million ES. -Dave
Why all the worry? The market will do what the market will do. Buy stocks and set your stops. Short stocks and set your stops. We are currently in a great swing trading environment. Day and swing traders can't be hurt if they trade what they see. The only risk here is for long term traders, but the up trend is still intact. If you're a long term trader you don't even begin to get concerned until the market drops below the 150 ma. Don't worry, be happy.
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Market up but I'm not going to celebrate since I know the ten-year folks can hammer it again if they want