There has always been a correlation, its just that no one really bothered to pay any attention to it cos the 10 year had been trading under 4.9 prior to this bond sell off. The market had been pricing in at least one rate cut for 2007 for many months now, what we are getting now is really just a crash back to reality. You only need to look at how the fed funds futures have turned around to understand how quickly sentiments have changed.
Funny thing is if you look at TIPS in the last 2-3 weeks I see no underlying change in inflation expectations. Accordingly, a few weeks ago, fed fund futures were forecasting three possible cuts by year's end. Now however, the odds favor at least one hike. Go figure... To spin it further: will many be caught on the wrong side of the market with their expectations (short bonds) should the Fed make clear there won't be any hikes this year? Just one scenario...
I agree, I saw someone sell 8000 ES in 1 trade. That's the biggest I've seen in a very long time! Pit has been all about the sellers too the last 2 hours! -SL
You're overlooking the most blantantly basic of facts. There's ALWAYS someone on the other side of the trade. IF you consider 2000 shs large, at market they're going into the specialist (or market maker's) coffers. Pssst, that's "the plan". Now just WTF do you think they're eventually going to do with all that inventory? You also have approaching: 1. Expiration. 2. End of quarter. 3. Proverbial 4th of July rally.
Yes, a lot.... high percentage about hardware I understand that "volume" is sacred to most traders, but I stopped using it years ago... found it inconsequential. I did notice a 1.5 Million ES day a while back, so I thought 2.3 Million might be a record. If not, do you know what the record volume is?
What are the odds tomorrow is like last weeks Thurs-Friday. I bought some DDM to hedge against tomorrow. I hate bounce back rally's.
why do I have a feeling that in another 3-4 weeks the dow will be at 14k, as bearish as I am I have a feeling the bulls are setting up for another major run in this market, as much as I do not want to see it I think its quite possible. This is from a article I found on yahoo, notice how there is no panic : Many analysts are viewing the recent pullback in the stock market as a short-term dip ahead of the second-quarter earnings season, which begins in earnest in July. Yardeni pointed out that with recent estimates of year-over-year earnings averaging about 4 percent, financial results could easily beat expectations as they did in the first quarter. "We go through these little panic attacks in the market -- we had one last year in May and June, we had one this year in March, we may be in the midst of one now. Often these panic attacks turn out to be buying opportunities," Yardeni said.
I'm talking the S&P futures, not an individual stock. Sure 2000 shares of a stock (most stocks) means nothing but when you see the bids on the ES get pummeled by 2000 lot mkt orders and a bunch of times, that means something. I dont profess to know where the mkt is going in the long run, but price action like that is not bullish. No way you can draw positive conclusions from seeing that. Small retail investors dont hold 500,1000 and 2000+ lot positions of the ES.