I agree. There's only rare circumstances that can make a bull market "different". Has to be a revolutionary invention like the combustion engine, railroad, free energy, massive resource discovery etc. Then that bubble really will last. Unfortunately, its much easier for downside risks to "be different" under irresponsible management. Zimbabwe, Weimar Republic, 1929 US, 1990âs Japan. Easier to blow out a nations wealth and start from scratch than to print wealth and make it somehow âlastâ. Thatâs impossible. But the former is not.
Stocks can't forecast anything, the market is incredibly stupid. Just as the subprime mortgage was starting to make news, dow jones and sp were making all time highs (2007), clearly the market did not care about subprime then. If markets were wise, they would never crash since they could foresee fundamental imbalances in themselves before those imbalances could get out of hand.
I wonder if there is a formal definition of a Depression, such that two consecutive negative quarters defines a recession. And I agree with your assessment that we've already had a recession. Who is going to tell the government?
PTF, you are smarter than that, the govt already knows and doesn't gove a crap. Their best interests are in dependence upon them, not self-reliance among taxpayers.
Ok, perhaps I should have said it this way: "Who is going to tell the government?" Looks like there is no formal definition for a depression so the government will really be confused then. "What is an Economic Depression? You might be surprised to learn that âdepressionâ doesnât have a formal definition. A recession is formally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Most consider a depression to be an extended and severe recession. The Great Depression was in fact two recessions: 1929-1934 and 1937-1939. World War II finally brought an end to the era." http://www.soundmoneymatters.com/economic-depression/
On the other hand, no two bull or bear markets are exactly the same - so if people say "it's different this time", they're correct - every time.
What you're talking about is a semantic difference... Of course one time is not FRICKIN' EXACTLY the same... The essence of THIS time is that it's not only different from any bear market any of us have experienced, its WAAAYYYY different... hence, "different this time"..
Boo hoo hoo a .5% decline in GDP (assuming it even happens) is NOT a deep recession at all. Maybe it is time 2 cover because the rally is gona be huge. The smartist era is still here