the market is forceasting a very deep recession. the fact that the dow has dropped 6 thousand points in less than a year and the naz losing almost half its value tell me,despite what the street says,that we are on the brink of a deep recession. we are already in recession but the market,which looks forward is forecasting a deep one. also,foreign and emerging markets are dropping like rocks and forecasting one as well. tight credit,car dealers no longer lease,and GM and Ford may actually go bankrupt along with a few more banks. things are getting much uglier than your truely ever imagined in his wildish dreams.
Can you please post your forecasting equation and the standard errors of the coefficients please? Thanks.
It could also be that even though the Socialist wealth redistribution programs of NObama will get consumers spending more relatively soon, stock market capitalists don't like it. That is, investors see the capital benefits of investing in the stock market being stripped away... so they're dumping stocks and making other plans. (??)
Exactly right NY. I was thinking the same thing when I woke up this morning to hear the futures were down 22. I checked the quotes Sunday night and we were up 5. The market is telling us this is going to be a deep, severe recession, which is great for traders. Recession = volatility!
Are you sure you're going to be in the "winning half"? For every winning contract there is a losing one. So, maybe the correct statement is, "volatility is great for HALF of the traders"... and as it's a fact that the majority of winning contracts rest in the hands of a minority of traders... maybe the REAL truth is "volatility is HORRIBLE for traders" in general...
When I got my first real-time data/charting rig, the vendor send along a comic strip of Shoe. 1st Frame... Shoe is sitting in front of a RT terminal and says, "I just got a real-time stock terminal... I can now see everything". 2nd Frame.... "Oh yeah... I've got my finger on the pulse of the markets". 3rd Frame... "Bankruptcy at the speed of light!"
Did the crash in 1987 forecast a deep recession? if so, it didn't happen. Markets cannot be used to accurately forecast anything, and certainly not their magnitude. Did the dotcom collapse forecast a depression? That's not to say we won't get a deep recession .... just that you can't predict it based on the market collapsing. You saw similar behavior in 1997, 1998 and we didn't even get a recession. Oh wait, <b><i>this time it's different!</i></b>
1987 was a quick drop and then a huge rally ensued to srat a new bull market. this is much different,this was anything but quick. the 2000 crash was a technology bubble that burst. today,we have a banking system that is on the brink of failure and a world wide economic down turn with extremely tight credit. you cannot compare today with 1987 or 2000.