"Stocks Could Rise When Bullets Fly"

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TGregg, Feb 8, 2003.

  1. TGregg


    You just knew it was only a matter of time:

    Stocks Could Rise When Bullets Fly
    Sat Feb 8, 2:57 PM ET
    By Haitham Haddadin

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - If history is a guide, rockets raining down on Baghdad could spark a rally on Wall Street.

    Macabre as it sounds, stock market rallies have been a consequence of war in the past. And an attack on Iraq would remove some of the uncertainty that has clouded the market.


    Perhaps a sure sign that we'll continue downwards?
  2. tampa


    My lad, there are no "sure signs" in the market. If you think that there are, mortgage the farm, and go short. If you're not so sure, then why did you make the post? What's the point?
  3. dis


    In anticipation of a war rally institutional money managers are going to a) cover short positions 2) raise cash by selling defensive stocks and c) buy high-beta stocks (QQQ, semi's, etc.). As a result, the stock market will stay relatively flat with NDX outperforming SPX. The October lows will hold, which will be widely interpreted as a bullish sign.

    Once the bullets start flying, the institutions and later the public will rush to buy stocks, and the market will rally. However, in the absence of a short squeeze, the rally will quickly run out of steam with few buyers yet plenty of short sellers left... As usual, the investing public will get trapped along with a majority of MF managers.
  4. tampa


    I wonder if you can help me - I've misplaced my car keys - that should be an easy one for you...
  5. TGregg


    Thank you for your helpful opinion.
  6. tampa


    So you're not going to tell me where the keys are?

    Well, if you can't tell me where my car keys are, why should I believe your market prognostications?

    I think you are just a phoney - like Miss Cleo, and all the rest.

    I'll find the keys myself - thank you.
  7. dis


    My crystal ball is a bit cloudy today... All I can see is that you are long OTM puts likely to expire worthless. Are you sure you own car keys? :confused:
  8. tampa


    ...damn, you're good! I was just trying to trick you with the car keys thing - it's my monthly bus pass I've lost - any ideas where it could be?
  9. TGregg


    Should anybody know of a "professionals only" trading BBS to hang out at, I'd sure appreciate an invite. Thanks.
    #10     Feb 9, 2003