StockMafia- Where's The Volume?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Feb 14, 2008.

  1. Some of the technical based outfits see nothing but doom & gloom, this is when I like to turn away and follow something else like Cycle Theory but that's not cooperating either. The best we can hope for is that the down move was a blind panic and this is but a readjust for the whole market so that we can then figure out where we stand. I mean this was supposed to be a correction right? If so there's 10% to grab on the upside so that we are just down 8% or so.... from there we can back and fill.... Yet Mafia feels otherwise... ~ stoney

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    The advance lacked the confirmation of higher turnover.

    This time, the major indices managed to close at or near their intraday highs. Unfortunately for the bulls, volume levels failed to rise alongside of prices. Total volume in the NYSE declined 6%, as volume in the Nasdaq was unchanged from the previous day's level. The S&P 500 has advanced in each of the past three sessions, but trading limped in below average levels in each of those sessions.

    Because the market's recent gains have lacked the confirmation of accumulation by mutual, hedge, and pension funds, this week's rally remains highly suspect. When a market rallies on lighter than average volume, it only takes one day of institutional selling to wipe out many days of gains. With the stock market clearly stuck in an overall downtrend, there are pretty good odds of another day of institutional selling coming along shortly.

    A break of the February 12 lows would generate triggers for entry on the short side of the broad market. Although stocks rallied yesterday, the technical picture didn't improve much. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow are now marginally above their 20-day moving averages, but still below key resistance of their February 1 highs.

    The market will inevitably begin to resume its primary downtrend.

    Wednesday's advance was more than just a good day; it was the third consecutive day of advance. Ok, up three days in a row, is it really that big of a deal? Yes, it is. Why, because it hasn't happened since Christmas, when the major downdraft began.

    One minor detail that should be mentioned is the end of the writers' strike. That means Hollywood can start cranking it out again; a big deal, considering the California's economy is equal to that of France. It remains clear the market has discounted a lot of negativity and is looking for those bright spots on which to step higher. The SPX bounced a lot, but relative to Tuesday's high, it isn't that big of a move: The S&P 500 has become a wild mess of opening gaps, many of which have been filled. The good news is Wednesday the S&P gapped over 1360, which remains a clearly defined level of resistance. The SPX is on a three day roll, One more good day will put it up near the 1380 line, but while the Dow is near its 76% line, the S&P is at its 62% line. Overall the action remains uneven. Let's see if the SPX can hold 1360 for more than a day.