business done, time for me to do some other work LEft: DAKT entry 37.63 , now 38.54 GILD 40% too low of a price to sell the rest stop @ breakeven entry: 62.35 now 62.80
Not exactly. I merely pointed out that there are 4 quarters in a year and that 400% per quarter suggests a 1,600% annual return rather than the 1,200% suggested by the other respondent. In your post that preceded this exchange, you made no reference to seasonality: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1030297&highlight=Tucson#post1030297 Therefore, neither did I. I merely pointed out an arithmetic oversight. I also noted my vague skepticism. That was the extent of my post: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1030336#post1030336 You will note that I made no effort to flame or otherwise offend anyone.
HOLDING - DAKT GILD SOLD SHI SOLD AQNT SOLD SOLD SHORT: 04/06/06 11:37:00 SOLD Short NOVL Market Day Executed @ 7.58
My general references to your calculations stem from the 10 to 12 times a year doublings you mentioned when we were discussing the potential of the market and how that potential may apply to the Tucson group. At that time the year was just getting under way and a lot of progress had been made by the group so we knew and understood the connection of potential to JAN and part of FEB then all of FEB. I felt that you were correct in your conclusions for the year using a monthly viewpoint. I carry forward various themes and topics by building on the initial dialogue. Broadening and deepening topics has a real payoff as the dialogue continues to develop. So far their has been a little humor too when people cannot calculate the # of quarter in the years and/or then multiply to get a correct non compounded answer. Having a 400% quarter does not on a proratea basis get a person 1200% per year. I looked at the parts of a year to broaden the discussion from just monthly to seasonal issues. I also suggested that an equity curve that was presented could be done on semilog graph and that rays from the origin then could be used for comparitive rates of return. Since the equity cucrve was one that fell below the ET long term average of 1 point per day on the ES, I drew in the result that could be opbtained at that rate of return. The presented equity curve fell beneath this result. I did two other comparitive lines that illustrated the compounding result: one for the actual equity curve starting at 10,000 dollars and another for the ET long term average for 1 contract. Both of these show that the performance on the equity curve is deteriorating markedly from the initial potential of the trader. their is a myth about edges coming and going. maybe this is a verification of how a mythical edge is going away. More probable it is a measure of the traders continuing performance of making less than the ET long term average. What is particularly pleasant about having a dialogue with you on this stuff is that the potential that the market offers can be kept on the table. It is in deep contrast to a person's opinin that a range of 1 to 5 % a month porfits translates to 20 to 100% a year. This mythical misunderstanding by the person puts him in lala land. When the potential of the markets is understood. And a person has about 8 types of basic refinement techniques to apply to their progress, it is verey possible to move along to iteratively refine the effectivenss and efficiency of any approach. Additionally there are many facets of how to go about becoming conscious of how markets operate and the various roles of different kinds of trading that may be chosen to integrate with the markets. Makets knowledge can run very deep. Trader skills can be so refined and elegant. By optimizing experience, it is possible to see a person's equity curve rise to the asymptote that the potential of the market represents. I posted a chart of GILD in that vein. GILD is a stock that represents colddweb's thought that 5% a month is 100% a year. It, rather, is the 70% that GILD shows for a year and in comparison to four other macro performance indexes. colddweb will not come close to making the 70% using stocks like GILD. He has no effectiveness and efficiency as this forum he created is designed to show. No one seriosly entertains any of his thoughts if and when they might begin to occur. the market potential for a front running trader orientation to trading the highest quality stocks (based upon earnings and price performance) runs, on a daily basis 4 to 7 % a day consistently. This is simply the annualized compounded asymptote to use for comparing a trader's equity curve. Cloddweb has a 5 percent a month compounded performance curve that he believes to be the limit of his capability to extract capital from the potential of his chosen universe of instruments. Obviously, the above do not represent to potential for anyone who wants to make a lot of money. The potential is much greater and requires another approach than mentioned here. what I espouse for position trading stock instruments is a type of tradingbthat can be dome effectively and efficiently by a self selecting sample of people who have regular jobs and want to spend some time every evening carrying out a process to make money effectively and efficiently. I simply provide them with more information than they can obtain anywhere in the world, continuing backup support, and idiot proffing continuing effort and personal continuing critiques of their progress and I answer all of their questions when they come up. This of course is bullshit to 4 out of 5 others. It is not to those whose equity curves are progressing at less than the potential of the markets and at many times the rate of what clopwreb says he does (5% a month which he thinks is 100% a year). The transference demo'ed here by Spy (and he does better than posted) and friends and colleagues is a breath of fresh air and a performance that has occurred by remote means. what I am suggesting is that people have the capability, and they demonstrated it quite well , to conduct a learning and trading process that far exceeds the critic's critiques and commentary. I have read the disaster that this thread represents. I understand the climate that ET generates for such. I am very clear on two other things: what ET would be like if it were run properly and what has to be improved to allow ET's owners to really make some money as a business. Can you imagine what it would be like to have a thread moderated to inform the public of what it is like to be a sucessful "Stock Swing Trader". The owner of this thread doesn't even know what stock swing trading is. Maybe thread titles of the main themes of individual interaction should be reserved for the benefit of ET membership and they should be moderated by staff who have the interests of the members a heart. Obviously this is not in the cards for ET or ET members. We all get coolweb instead. There is no way coolweb is going to get a message from ET. He is not able to get the message of what ET needs and it is not him and his orientation to other people. It would be amazing to see him only open his mouth to ask pertinent questions for about 6 mounths. He definitely has no pertinent answers for anyone and especially for the wellbeing of ET. Lets see if he can shut this thread down. This post presents the notion that the markets have potential; people can discuss that potential; many views are possible and it is a good idea to consider the potential of the market when a trader is trying to be successful.
04/06/06 11:49:00 SOLD Short RIMM Market Day Executed @ 83.84 STOP 84.01 This RIMM position will be closed with a minimal profit, Risk is a bit high in the overall swing, The stop price I set is a short term stop.