That's you? No kidding?! So you've been using these solves for the 7 yrs or so?? Damn...you've rekindled my interest in DP! As mentioned earlier, I was a practitioner, back in the day. Even did my own ultra-short term solves. Ultimately moved on. Still use some astro tho. And I always seem to know the day-color of the previous and upcoming full moon!
However, if you look at the table, the returns for the US indices are the same for new moon and full moon. I also think Renaissance capital looked at it before and said they found nothing.
It can be determined exactly, numerically, in base 3 math. And in base 3 math, 1/2 can never be determined, it would go on to infinity. I think you are reaching here.
Hello, respectfully, I completely understand that they are not absolutes and that you use them to deal with probabilities. It is still fallacious. I can explain but I saw other posts that you think I’m a troll and have subsequently blocked and ignored me. If not, I can continue. Please advise. I saw this post then saw another one afterwards that you ignored and blocked me. I’d like to know before I write to you why I believe what you’re claiming is fallacious, in other words, based on a mistaken belief. When I said fallacious, its in the context that you’re argument has premises that are based on mistaken beliefs that I would like to highlight and point out to you. Am I on ignore or blocked? I simply made a claim, like you made a claim, and I am willing to explain why. again, I know it’s not certain but supposed to enhance your probabilities, with this being said, it is still fallacious. Edit: You’re fragile and stand weak with your beliefs. You should reconsider such a stance if you want to gain intelligence.
Just to make sure everyone knows, I'm not going to tell you how to trade. But the first half of this week, I look to go long gbpcad, exit maybe mid week or earlier, and the second half of this week, I look to short eurusd to the end of the week.
To be very honest here. I'm not a really good trader despite having knowledge of these cycles. I have psychological difficulties trading such as fear of loss along with not making a very good income during my working career due to health problems, I've always been under funded, and end up over leveraging and messing up in that manner. I am currently trying to qualify for an FTMO funded account trading other peoples money. I passed the first test of 10% gain in 16 days, and am currently in the second round of test where the goal is a 5% gain in 60 days or less. I also am waiting for funding to clear in a live account where I can trade stock index, forex and others using real money.
I'm not an expert on statistics, but bayesian_analysis_of_lunar_effects_on_stock_returns_liu.pdf has and 0.003 for the full moon is different than 0.009 for the new moon.