Stock Market Cycles?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by dominover, Jan 23, 2011.

  1. dominover


    For those who are familiar with the general theory of Stock Market Cycles, would you be able to clarify something for me?

    Whether you see the below as correct in sequence is irrelevant, I'm trying to highlight a point before asking this question.

    Starting from the Early Bull stage I'll list the industry sectors as per stock cycle theory should perform or show increased performance in the below sequence.

    1 - Transportation - (start of early bull stage)
    2 - Technology
    3 - Capital Goods
    4 - Basic Industry
    5 - Energy (should be near the top of the bull stage)
    Following the above we should move into defensive stocks.
    Sectors may not be exact though thats the general picture.

    My question is this: If Interest rates are increasing gradually and Basic Industry Picks up, non cyclical defensive stocks are performing and consumer discretionary or capital goods haven't performed well for a lengthy period does this mean that we are at stage 4 of the stock market cycle even though the earlier stages of the stock market cycle such as Stages 1,2,3 haven't shown any improvement? Have we leaped straight to stage 4?

    I think this is a flaw in my understanding. Are there other factors that I'm not considering here? Any clarification on this would be greatly appreciated.