. October 19, 2007 SouthAmerica: Just a Reminder - Nikolai Kondratieff - The real deal Do you know who Kondratieff was? A Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff, published a study in 1926 showing that a very long-term economic cycle existed. His major premise was that capitalist economies had a pattern of long wave cycles of boom and bust. The bust cycle repeated itself approximately every 60 years. If you had read Kondratieff's paper in 1926, you would have known that an economic depression was around the corner. Kondratieff identified four distinct phases the economy goes through during each cycle: 1) Inflationary growth, 2) Stagflation, 3) Deflationary growth, and finally 4) Depressionâfalling prices, falling stock prices, falling profits, debt collapse. As the stock market is collapsing, a number of corporate scandals emerge such as Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossing, Adelphia Communications, Arthur Anderson, the sub-prime scandal, and many others. As the debt load reaches new highs in the economy, the result is a record-breaking number of personal bankruptcies, and foreclosures as is the case in the US today. In 2007 it is estimated that we will have 2 million foreclosures in the United States. The last time the rate of foreclosures reached such a level was during the depression. Believe me - the new depression is coming and it is right on schedule. .
Oh, didn't you know? SA is a well known author and he has told us all several times that he is famous for making correct predictions. In fact he spends the majority of his time on anonymous message boards making predictions. When asked to cite some of the books he has published, he tends to either disappear for a few days... or, inexplicably, provide links to... yes, you guessed it, internet message boards! He has also pointed out that he is personal friends with the King of Spain, the President of Brazil, several prominent members of the House of Windsor and baseball great Reggie 'Mr. October' Jackson. He has also pointed out that he is descended from royalty himself. When asked why he spends so much of his time posting on an anonymous message board, he is quick to point out that.... that... actually, he usually disappears for a day or two and then pretends that he didn't get the question.
. SouthAmerica: Reply to traderNik Here comes traderNik again with his only argument like a little kid - you are too ugly, your are too fat. When I asked him to meet me in New York for me to introduce him to a former president of Brazil - he was a no show. The pathetic fellow did not even answer to my invitation. He missed the chance to meet a real intellectual and first class fellow - former Brazilian president Sarney. Must be terrible to have an inferiority complex about the class system and he comes out of your hole just to do the same old bashing about something that nobody cares. Do you really think that by bashing my family background you are able to change the subject and take the attention of the subject at hand? You are a real fool TraderNik. Please grow up or go and play with the other kids in one of the social message boards. Your intellect is more in tune with the Britney Spears crowd. .
. October 19, 2007 SouthAmerica: Reply to TraderNik By your comments it is obvious to me that you have no idea who Kondratiev was. First I give you some clues â His name was not associated with the Russian nobility or royalty â a subject that upsets you and brings up your inferiority complex. He also was not a Russian mobster or a famous musician. Here is a little education for you. Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev, Russian: Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев (1892-1938) was a Russian economist, who was a proponent of the New Economic Policy (NEP) in the Soviet Union. He was executed at the height of Stalin's Great Purge and "rehabilitated" fifty years later. He proposed a theory that Western capitalist economies have long term (50 to 60 years) cycles of boom followed by depression. These business cycles are now called "Kondratiev waves", or grand supercycles. In 1924, after publishing his first book, presenting the first tentative version of his theory of the major cycles, Kondratiev travelled to England, Germany, Canada and the United States, and visited several universities before returning to Russia. A proponent of the Soviet New Economic Policy (NEP), Kondratiev favored the strategic option for the primacy of agriculture and the industrial production of consumer goods, over the development of heavy industry. Kondratievâs influence on economic policy lasted until 1925, declined in 1926 and ended by 1927. Around this time, the NEP was dissolved by a political shift in the leadership of the Communist Party. Kondratiev was removed from the directorship of the Institute of Conjuncture in 1928 and arrested in July 1930, accused of being member of an illegal and probably non-existent âPeasantsâ Labour Partyâ. As early as August 1930, Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin wrote a letter to Prime Minister Vyacheslav Molotov asking for the execution of Kondratiev. His last letter was sent to his daughter, Elena Kondratieva, on 31 August 1938. Shortly afterwards, on 17 September during Stalin's Great Purge, he was subjected to a second trial, condemned to ten years without the right to correspond with the outside world; however, Kondratiev was executed by firing squad on the same day it was issued. Kondratiev was 46 at the time of his execution and was only rehabilitated almost fifty years later, on 16 July 1987. .
. SouthAmerica: Reply to traderNik By the way, this is where you belong: âPeasantsâ Labour Party. .
Kondratieff based his theory on historical patterns. Once an historical pattern is noted it becomes subject to radical skewing due to anticipation. Current Fedheads are acutely aware of Kondratieff cycles and have been attempting over the past 20 years to smooth them out. It could all backfire and collapse like a house of cards, but the Fed is at least aware of the problem and has many resources at its command to counter what may or may not be inevitable cyclical developments. At any rate, according to Kondratieff a depression has been overdue for many years now but hasn't materialized. Nobody knows how it will actually play out. Any scenario is possible.
. Heideqqer: Nobody knows how it will actually play out. Any scenario is possible. ***** October 20, 2007 SouthAmerica: A good possibility to trigger the inevitable might be an US attack into Iran and the subsequent closing of the Strait of Hormuz. If the world is cut off from Middle East oil then watch out that might do the trick. Having a madman at the White House talking about starting World War III - it just add fuel to the fire. .
We could have ourselfs an economic meltdown with the DOW going through the roof... in a Zimbawe like manner, where the gov is printing so much money that the market can't go anywhere but up [since it's one of the primary entry points for new money into the economy] In this case however it might not be the gov printing the money, but the Asian central banks dumping their USD holdings into the market... or a little of both... I actually suspect that the recesion is already started, the bubble is already collapsing... but it's being cover by a tick layer of make-up from the loss in currency value of the USD.
. October 22. 2007 SouthAmerica: The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as the Crash of ââ¬â¢29, was one of the most devastating stock market crashes in American history. It consists of Black Thursday (October 24, 1929), the initial crash and Black Tuesday (October 29, 1929), the crash that caused general panic five days later. The crash marked the beginning of widespread and long-lasting consequences for the United States. *** Right now the US dollar is trading at US$ 1.4332 to Euro $ 1.00 ââ¬â and itââ¬â¢s heading south. And the Asian stock markets are taking a dive. Letââ¬â¢s see if the negative momentum will continue downward when they open the New York Stock Exchange. October 22, 2007 as a Black Monday - it does not sound right. Sorry, to disappoint you guys, but the days of the week does not match with 1929. This time around we might have - October 29, 2007 a new Black Monday - now we are into something. ââ¬Â¦ .