AMZN is worth no more than $62. ($2.50 forward x 25 % growth rate) Top line growth will come in at 25%, and there will be nothing more than margin pressure and even top line pressure going forward, as states disincentivize sales tax evasion. One of the better long term risk:reward trades on the short side out there ... On the other hand, this stock has always been priced 3 years ahead of itself. 1.25% ^ 3 * 2.50 ('10 earnings) = $4.88. Let's round to $5 and put a 25 multiple on it, and that's $125. But anytime 3 yrs of expectation is priced in, that means a long has to deal with the burden of what 3 years disappointment may give. That makes weak longs. While it might go to $150-200 before it craters, I wouldn't be surprised to see this a $30-40 stock in 3 or 4 years.
That was one thing that made me think AMZN isn't completely done to the downside yet. I would have preferred to see it react like AAPL did today, so we could also see a slight rally, and then a return to the downside (which shakes out the weak hands) and then a move back to the upside. Regardless, I'm keeping my positions small and my stops fairly wide. It worked on AAPL, so if it works on AMZN too, great...otherwise I'll move on.
I've read somewhere AMZN isn't fundamentally worth much more than the price of Target. Interesting to see who will be right. Personally, I don't see what all the bullish fuss on AMZN is about. Maybe I'm a little behind... but I still only use AMZN to buy books
I use amazon to check pricing once I decide on buying an item. I was looking at a laptop. It was 1499 at compusa and most places, Amazon had it for 1449. Take into account the 7% sales tax I would be saving($101) + free shipping if you are willing to wait a few extra days, it's really a good buy.
long term it looks like it's got legs, next week or 2 looks like some selling, market is at a critcal chart point here( with neg. underpinings) but this chart patern is usually bullish(the market). that being said, lets see what happens after the fun and games the puppateers pulll over the holidays.
The shorts keep getting their heads handed to them in AMZN and that has helped propel the share price. This weekends Barron's article should be taken with a grain of salt. AMZN will probably do better than most retailers this holiday, given the economy. Full disclosure, I'm long the 135/125 box.