Hi brownsfan019, There are many Japanese Candlestick traders here at ET along with two book authors (identities not disclosed). You probably would have gotten an intelligent response had you used ET search menu to see whom are discussing/using Japanese Candlesticks and then pm or emailed these traders with your questions about Nison seminars. With that said...I've attended one of Mr. Nison's live seminars many years ago. I wasn't impressed and it was just some extra information beyond his candlestick books. Simply, I was already an advance candlestick pattern trader and attended the live seminar (at the encouragement of a fellow trader...institutional trader) in hopes of learning a few new tricks. Thus, I was very disappointed because I didn't learn any new tricks. Howevever, I do remember a few guys at the live seminar that said they were new to Japanese Candlesticks and the seminar helped them with some concepts they had been applying incorrectly on their own prior to the live seminar. Did it improved their trading ??? I don't know. Did it improved the trading of my trading pal ??? Yes in terms of using Japanese Candlestick patterns as profit targets (exit signals). Did it improve my trading ??? No. As I said before...the seminar seemed to me to be basic stuff although a little more advance than the material in his books. Now...here's what I do know and what I say should be taken with a grain of salt: * Steve use to trade his own stuff and did so profitably. He stopped when the income from his teachings greatly exceeded his income from his trading (understandable). However, it would be nice if during his live seminars he at least put on a trade or two in front of the audience during the live seminar. Yet, I wouldn't be surprise if he does do an occassional trade via candlesticks but just doesn't disclose such. * Most traders that fail at using Japanese Candlesticks were not using it correctly. Many public examples of such here at EliteTrader.com by traders that have disclosed how they interpreted/applied Japanese Candlesticks * If you tried to used Japanese Candlesticks either exclusively by itself or as a predictive tool... You were using it incorrectly. * Japanese Candlesticks should be used as a confirmation tool to what you already know about the price action. Do not use candlesticks to tell you what price is doing. * Most candlestick patterns are not reliable. Unfortunately, these are the most popular patterns many traders will trade, backtest and argue However, there are a few reliable patterns and such are extensively discussed here at EliteTrader.com * Most traders or non-traders have backtested the generic candlestick patterns. These patterns are not reliable but are commonly found in most software that has candlestick codes. * Most traders do not realize that each candlestick pattern has its own sub-groups and that there may be only a few reliable sub-groups. Example...I've documented over a dozen different types of Bullish White Hammer patterns. Only a few of them are reliable. * Candlesticks aren't reliable with counter-trend trading. Therefore, you need to know the trend prior to your candlestick analysis to ensure your trading with the overall trend. Further, candlestick reversal signals are more reliable when used as continuation signals due to their dynamic price behaviour. In comparison, reversal signals used in counter-trend trading is not reliable. However, if you intentionally take a candlestick signal that's against the overall trend (you got a wild itch)... Best to dramatically reduce your position size for risk control. * Some institution traders use Japanese Candlestick patterns but not exclusively by themselves. * Nison and others do not call themselves gurus. Only those that don't like them refer to them as gurus. * It takes many years to learn how to trade via Japanese Candlesticks and too many traders in error think they can do it in a few months or via some computer code without proper guidance. Those that think they can learn Japanese Candlesticks prior to learning why price does what it does... These traders are in for a rude awakening and probably will be like a few that showed up in this thread to bash the application of Japanese Candlesticks. Obvious signs of venting along with admitting they failed at using Japanese Candlesticks in comparison to some that have not. To sum it up... I agree with BSAM about Nison books. You aren't going to gain much insight from the live-seminars if your already using Japanese Candlesticks with some success or have a strong grasp of understanding price action trading itself. Thus, I think those live-seminars are only useful to those that are completely new to Japanese Candlesticks and willing to put in the effort in mastering candlesticks over the next few years (one seminar is enough). Still...the live-seminars would be more useful if actual live trading was being performed even if such is performed via a small trading account. As for the comment by HorsesToTrading about James Altucher... James went into detailed about his method of testing Japanese Candlesticks. He tested them based upon his own personal trade management after entry, he was counter-trend trading sometimes, tested the generic unreliable patterns and did not test a confirmation (entry signal). The most importantly thing to remember aobut Altucher backtesting of particular candlestick patterns is that his trade managment after entry... Is not suitable for candlestick trading. If you don't understand what I mean about the trade managment... Review the discussion between sunnyskies and I along with our charts and his trade managment after entry in the below Trading Hammers (revisited) thread. Simply, two different traders with different trade management after the pattern signal... One can have positive trade results while the other has negative trade results of the same pattern signal but different trade management after entry. It's an eye opener discussion but nothing unusual about backtesters of candlesticks. Simply, Altucher has a losing trade management methodology that has nothing to do with Japanese Candlesticks. Also, the TradeStation computer codes for those generic candlestick patterns are not suitable for trading. Those candlestick codes are just software bells and whistles stuff to give you false hope you can own your own island someday... In my opinion, not worth the commission on a trade and many backtesters of candlesticks found this out the hard way. P.S. I'll saved a copy of my reply and repost it at a later date in my Trading Hammers (revisited) thread here at EliteTrader.com just in case the moderator deletes this thread. Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
Hey NihabaAshi, In Japanese, NihabaAshi means a "pregnant fish" right? I am just curious why you would pick a name like that. Is that what you trading system is based on?
Hopefully he's using a different trade methodology for his investors. Is he still in the Hedge Fund business ??? I know he's written a book or two (never read them) about Hedge Funds. Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
yes, to the best of my knowledge. i have not tested this idea, but upon observation, it appears that a "doji" can provides a nice counter trend entry signal, for those who utilize such things. any thoughts? thanks, surfer ps. how is the book coming on price action? has it been published?
Hi Ripley, Nihaba Ashi is actually two words. Nothing to do with pregnant nor fish. One of the words is related to martial arts but used as a candlestick term. Botarga Caviar anyone Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
When I started trading I explored all forms of Technical Analysis (including Japanese Candlesticks) and I found that all these indicators or "The Hydra Heads of Techincal Analysis" as Niederhoffer calls them, are very good predicting the PAST. I started doing better the day I removed from my screen Bollinger Bands, MACDs, Candlesticks and all that crap and started looking at the markets through my own eyes.
Hi surf, It depends on the doji type...there are many. The one that matters to me is the Long Legged Doji that occurs after a wide range body and a Long Legged Doji that gets confirmed by a strong white line. The other types of dojis I didn't find any success with as in losses. I no longer trade those other types of dojis. Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term