Thanks @bone . My strategy would be just to buy long dated FF, short the 30 and sit on it for a year or two.
In that case, you'll have to roll your bond position several times because if someone dared to make you a Dec 2020 bond market at present it would be ten tics wide... And the dated FF futures will be a couple tics wide and on the thin side depending on your expiry. The dated Eurodollar futures will be a half tic wide (the minimum) and for stupid size. You'll have to do 5 FF futures for 1 thirty year bond future; you'll only get a 45% SPAN margin credit because of the issues I mentioned earlier. You can do 6 two year notes for 1 thirty year bond future and your SPAN margin credit increases to 60% because of the issues I mentioned earlier. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/in...ctor=INTEREST+RATES&exchange=CBT&pageNumber=1 So, for a 5:1 FF to Bond spread your margin will be about the same as being short 3 Dec 2021 Eurodollars outright. If the bond market collapses you'll make more money on the outright short Eurodollar trade IMO. And without the substantial execution slippage. And depending upon who you clear - they might choose not to give you the SPAN margin credit at all, which means they will margin you like you have on 5 FF and 1 bond futures outright. Better check with your broker - I've seen quite a few discount futures brokers whose risk department wouldn't give retail customers SPAN spread margin credits.