Looking at today's SPX close it looks almost like a doji - a point of indecision. But SPX was up fairly strong almost 5 points beyond today's' close till the final 20 minutes of trading when it fell back on thin volume. It looks to me like the market is "dithering" and looking to shake out decisive sentiment for support up or down around the 1400 area. I still think there is a lot of buying pressure and we will trend up from here fairly easy at least 5-25 points more through the Dec options period. I am expecting/hoping for oil/energy to partially decouple its negative sentiment from non-energy equities as traders loosen up and permit some normal non-permanent seasonal heating/energy variation and normal upward energy price action. Since Oil/Energy is indeed a part of S&P500 oil/energy increases will in fact contribute to pushing SPX higher if the other components can get a moderate seasonally decouple from longer term investor concerns. I frankly expect a tidal wave of mutual funds offering S&P 500 ETFs to re-balance portfolios to account for the recent surge in it's energy components (e.g. XOM's large gain this week). I envision mutual funds to contribute a cascading of buying much like an end of year short squeeze as they compete with each other in re-balancing their holdings to match performance to the real underlying components. This could be a very fun next couple of weeks that could easily produce a large surge up from this effect alone. If VIX drops down again to the 9's we might be in a perfect storm to buy the proverbial low cost "lotto ticket" on SPX (eg Dec or Jan far OOM cheap Call). They make for great and inexpensive stocking stuffers. TS
no...but i cannot put all my analysis in one neat package to convey why this means much more than such a scant visual blip on the radar........but just watch.....a genius at work....as the chart extends....and how my combinatorial analysis sees things before the rest of the market.....that`s why I am good at market direction calls...and aproximate bottoms/tops.....after next wed. it will be a nine day chart holygrail and you should be able to see what i already see in the fundamentals/ta of the markets.....if everybody could see the top while they are in the midst of the top.....nobody would ever get caught holding the bag....tops never look like tops until after the fact for most------otherwise everybody would be rich, and nobody would ever lose money in the markets. but yes i admit holygrail that my chart is subject to that criticism, and that you can make a good bull case for insufficent data.
I'm more concerned with everyone being in a bad mood because of the weather in Chicago tomorrow...don't want those derivative guys getting all fired up! Or do we?