In light of the recent rally from March 12th-Present, I looked at similar instances over the past 2 years, since the official bear market began... From 10/10/02-12/2/02: Duration of rally was 37 trading days, percentage gain from actual low to actual high(SPX) +24.15% From 7/24/02-8/22/02: 22 trading days, +24.40% From 9/24/01-1/07/02: 74 trading days, +24.58% From 3/22/01-5/22/01: 44 trading days, +21.71% The current rally which made its swing low on 3/12/03 has lasted 56 trading days and has rallied +24.37%; if the market were to rally to the (mean) of the 4 aforementioned rallies, the projected high would be somewhere around 977-982(cash) SPX... Just something to look at...
As a follow up to the above post, if the current multiplier between the INDU and SPX remains constant at 9.1844, then a rally of 24.37% from the low on 3/12/03 to the highs, this would project to a rally to 9027(cash) on the INDU, which is a resistance level another individual mentioned on here recently...
There is an assumption in the conclusion that we are still in a bear market since you said you looked for instances of this since the bear market has started. Personally, I don't know whether we are or are not in a new bull market (and I don't really care much either way, but if I had to guess I'd say we're still in a bear)), but if we are, then the data you presented is invalidated because the conditions that existed during the testing no longer exist. Just some random musings.
Well, to cater to all audiences, I should have just said the most "recent" examples of rallies in the "market", not bull, nor bear...This way I can just present a few numbers of the duration of swings without stepping on anyone's toes...So, we will leave it at that...