Stats don't lie

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ToddGaack23, Oct 28, 2017.

  1. 777

    777

    How do you know this?

    Ray Dalio often asks himself "How do I know what I know is true".

    So... I am not arguing a side, but rather asking a serrious question.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2017
    #11     Oct 28, 2017
  2. 777

    777

    Your exits and COSTS are critical to day trading, as well as your entries.

    Traders of the New Era could be valuable to your understanding the true structure of the markets, how to get the best fills, and how a fair number of winning traders think.

    Backtesting is excellent but sometimes in real life the trades can not be made or the best fills and lowest costs are needed. But for some, backtesting has been a major key.
     
    #12     Oct 28, 2017
  3. Because I know there is not a sufficient number of adequate ranges to deploy such a strategy on any given day. The other thing statisitics tell me is signal bar entries are a fallacy. Watching the bid/ask flip near my defined entry zone is an ideal alternative. In fact, separating statistical probability from visual signals (patterns) was the first thing I learned.
     
    #13     Oct 28, 2017
  4. 777

    777

    Statistics?

    Have you personally gone over lots of data or read this, perhaps from a knowledgeable source?

    Trying to understand where you are comming from and not knocking.
     
    #14     Oct 28, 2017
  5. NeoTrader

    NeoTrader

    I think that's going to make a great intro for the book you're probably going write/already wrote.:)
     
    #15     Oct 29, 2017
  6. In a range environment, yes. In a trending environment, you dead.
     
    #16     Oct 29, 2017
    Xela and tommcginnis like this.
  7. Every time I think I get it, the next trading day is a disaster.
     
    #17     Nov 4, 2017
    d08 likes this.
  8. To developing a trading system based on stats you must look at

    1) Risk vs Reward
    2) Win% & know that higher win % = scalping
    3) Time
    4) Volume
    5) Price
    6) Trend
    7) Stops vs Targets
    8) Trade Setups
    9) Daily loss limit.

    Also, out of these 9 items, a good trader will know which one of them is most important.
     
    #18     Nov 7, 2017
  9. probably already.

    my stats says otherwise: "go with the trend in any environment".
     
    #19     Nov 7, 2017
  10. That goes without saying, the hard part is defining what the trend is and most important, where.
     
    #20     Nov 7, 2017