Stats don't lie

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ToddGaack23, Oct 28, 2017.

  1. After years of research and backtesting I learned the most important concept for the day trader is to buy below a given low and sell above a given high. Your rules and time determinants are secondary. A trader can expect a higher return to risk which is the definition of an edge.
     
  2. qxr1011

    qxr1011

    what is given high(low)?
     
    tomorton likes this.
  3. ET180

    ET180

    Ok, so buy low and sell high. Got it! I'll try that next.
     
    tommcginnis likes this.
  4. Xela

    Xela


    They don't "lie", per se, but they can very easily be both misrepresented and misinterpreted, and they very often are.

    (Latest research demonstrates that "very often" means 78.2% of the time, by the way. ;) )
     
    tommcginnis, Grantx and Truth_ like this.
  5. 777

    777

    Your profile says you are 18 and it looks like you are headed toward trading in a serrious way.

    It also looks like you are looking for Elitetrader to help you.

    I suggest you pay special attention to the posters mentioned in Rin4et's thread, Which Users Posts Havev Benefited You The Most:

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/which-users-posts-have-benefited-you-the-most.314260/

    There are a zillion posters on Elite and the answers posted in this thread are among the better ones.
    _______

    My list was:

    @lescor
    @Dustin
    @Xela
    @Daal

    Lescor and Dustin have made serrious money trading US stocks for many years.

    Xela wins trading FOREX and is wise beyond her years.

    Daal is the author of the relatively new book, which I found very helpful: Traders of the New Era (his book is not a post, but read the book!!!)

    (A new poster named @Truth_ recantly showed up with 49 interesting posts. Will continue to read)

    Since no one has mentioned Dustn, I expect some will consider him a hidden gem.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2017
    smir likes this.
  6. dealmaker

    dealmaker

    "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
    - British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli
     
  7. Great input. I think the interesting part is the longer the time duration the better the relative returns but any times less than a daily bar do not hold up statistically speaking probably due to the recent directional bias.
     
  8. 777

    777

    Why do you say this about shorter term bars?
     
  9. From what I've learned so far, it's more important for me to find ways to enter trades with minimal risk and the returns will follow. After all, negative compound returns cost more than positive compound returns gain.
     
  10. Intraday bars consolidate and trend more than they reverse and create outside bars.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2017
    #10     Oct 28, 2017
    oraclewizard77 likes this.