I saw some statistics on the FOMC meeting days and the overall market. Im interested in seeing what happened on FOMC meeting days before the annoucement, then right after the announcement and then the next day's performance. If no one has these statistics then I will sit down tonight and see what I can come up with...I'll go back about 10 years...
Thank you. Those charts were helpful. My brief analysis of those charts is that today might be pivotal in the trend. Some of the charts demonstrated price being bid up right to the meeting and then there is a large fluctation, usually to the downside, after. Im expecting large volatility right around 2...
It would be more helpful if I could look at say an Excel spreadsheet of the last 10 years showing day before, right before, right after, day after... That would give me 120 data points which would be enough to make a statistical analysis. What I saw in the charts was that price usually sells off right after and then is anyone's guess from there. I dont think its very tradeable unless you like to gamble. My expectation is for a selloff right after the announcement. What its followed by is anyone's guess...
I'm not sure if this is the way to go. one: Imo, language phrases of the FED are neutral negative or positive. two: FED speak also conveys future expectations with phrases. If the market misinterprets the message, it typically corrects very soon, if not, someone from the FED is the point man to add clarification. The carefully worded language of Greenspan may not have the same results as Bernanke language. Bernanke is sloppy compared to Greenspan.
Do you have the temperament to short-sell bond option straddles/strangles immediately before the announcement in order to profit from the expected implied volatility implosion? It's really great when the trade works. It sucks when it doesn't.