If I know my average win and standard deviation of returns, how can I find if my results are statistically significant or just the result of chance?
If you have a lot of observations and a fairly normal distribution, one method is to try generating a random run of returns with avg win of zero and equal std dev, then run a t-test (freely available in excel). Good trading type book on the subject is Aroonson, Evidence Based TA.
A little research will reveal his background for you. http://www.evidencebasedta.com/aboutAronson.html
This could help you: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33654&perpage=6&pagenumber=1 Make sure you read page 5 and then decide.
perfect- that's exactly what I was looking for. Looks like this is the formula I wanted: x = abs(Avg-Profit) * (Number of Trades)^0.5 / (Std Dev of Profits)