I thought we were near a bottom in the housing market......those homebuilders have plenty of room to fall.... WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Starts of new U.S. homes plunged 14.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.486 million, the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Building permits fell 6.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.535 million, the lowest level in nine years. It was the largest percentage decline in permits in seven years. Housing starts are now down 27.4% from October 2005 levels. Building permits are down 28% year-on-year. The decline in October was much larger than expected by Wall Street economists, who were forecasting a 4.5% drop in starts to 1.69 million. Building permits were expected to fall about 1% to 1.62 million.
i dont know why people say that we are near a bottom in that market when tthe CEOs of all the major homebuilders are in a panic. they all say they dont see an end in sight. I will listen to them before anyone else. that number is a good indicator that they are right.
They are? Someone posted just a few days ago that he was tendered an offer to buy a new $370k house for $200k in that area, can't remember the name of the city. That doesn't sound strong to me.
\ I can't recall exactly either, but I believe the guy was referring to Central CA far from the coast. I doubt SF and San Jose are plunging though. On the housing front this was expected, so it should come as no surprise. Even the guy from NAR just now on CNBC is saying the building permits looks like weak. :eek:
As someone "in the market" I'd like to believe that's correct. What I see is that people who can't get their price are taking their homes off the market. In the case of investment properties they are renting them out over the winter and waiting to see what next Spring/Summer brings. My guess a month ago was that asking prices would be down another 10% by next summer and the actual transaction prices might be down as much as 20%. That would only leave 100% appreciation over the last 7 years or so. lol Right now I'm not so sure as prices have pretty much flattened. I think it will take people losing jobs in Silicon Valley to really dent the market around here -- Santa Cruz area. The other possibility would be a big jump in interest rates but I really don't see that happening any time soon.
prices are still "strong" in fairfield county, ct. also..... that means nothing. ever boat before? when you turn there is a delay before you actually turn. same for housing. this has been explained in many postings elsewhere on et.
I understand what you are saying. But I think that's just speculative at this time. Like you, I thought we'd see a bunch of selling and dramatically lower prices in the bubble areas -- we just disagreed about timing. When I didn't see it I looked at the cost of a mortgage etc and thought about refinancing techniques a bit. Absent job losses or interest rate hikes people will just stick. Negative equity has no meaning if you can meet the mortgage and you won't sell if it will BK you unless you have to.