Starting with 1 ES contract...

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Blotto, Jul 15, 2011.

What do you believe to be the most realistic time to complete this challenge?

Poll closed Jun 18, 2016.
  1. 2 - 5 years

    37 vote(s)
  2. 1 - 2 years

    6 vote(s)
  3. 6 - 12 months

    1 vote(s)
  4. Less than 6 months

    7 vote(s)
  1. Blotto


    How do you blow up $2k trading one lot on the ES? To lose $2k per contract, you must lose 40 ES points. I don't think anyone here could do that except on purpose. The range for this entire week is only 45 points.

    Also, why would anyone trade at 20:1 leverage without a very precise methodology which allows one to extract net points daily?

    The thread isn't about me- it is just about the topic of conversation - scaling up from 1 contract / $5k in the ES. Doesn't matter who is writing. I'm not going to bother with silly allegations - I frequently delete and edit posts. The motive you seek to imply isn't logical and I'll leave it to intelligent minds to realise why for themselves.

    Actually, you've given me a very interesting idea. Why don't I just piss off entirely. It is win-win. I don't have to waste my time or be accused of sordid motives, and you don't have to read what I write. Simple.

    I've posted quite enough for the sincere aspirant to get on with in any case.
    #11     Jul 15, 2011
  2. blotto: Ignore the naysayers and get on with the matter at hand.
    #12     Jul 15, 2011
  3. the1


    I'm curious where you came up with the number 333? You would have liquidity issues to deal with at that level. Even at 100 lots you can expect partial or incomplete fills on the ES.

    I think you're making a mistake by fixing your position size at a certain number. I don't put the same number of cars on every trade. As a general example, some trades call for 2 lots, others call for 20 while others call for 40. The quality of the setup dictates the size of the trade.

    To answer your question. I think you need at least a year of profitable trading before you begin to increase your position size. If you start having problems scale back and repeat. The psychological hurdles are magnified when position size increases. It takes time to overcome that.

    #13     Jul 15, 2011
  4. I asked in an earlier thread and no body responded. Ill ask again here since I am interested .

    Anyone can answer I guess but I'd like the answer from a successful futures trader.

    What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have in your futures account? What percentage is in long term diversivied investments?

    for trading futures, Assume you like to only risk .05% per trade as your max risk limit per trade. Do you risk .05% of your liquid net worth on a trade or .05% of your futures account on a trade?

    personally I have 10% of net worth in futures account and 90% in long term diversified. Interested in what other futures traders do?

    This is assuming you have a tested reliable methodology for trading futures on a shorter term TF (intraday)

    As for the answer to the OP's question. Less than a year. Possible, but very unlikely.
    #14     Jul 15, 2011
  5. traderrn


    With constant risk of 2% (2 pts/car/5k), RR of 4-6 (8-12 pts target), Win ratio of 30-40%, it is doable.

    That's my system (rather the one taught to me, which I am trying to adapt), unfortunately my D (or lack of it) keeps me from making progress.
    #15     Jul 15, 2011
  6. To the OP,

    the fact that you would even post such meaningless question about how long would it take to progress from 1 contract to the hundreds shows you have no business trading at this time.

    The only thing you should be concentrating on at this time is enhancing the performance(win loss ratio) of whatever strategy(s) you are using and weighing that with proper risk reward parameters.

    research, testing, practice,....research, testing, and more practice will make a you a better trader in the long run.
    #16     Jul 15, 2011
  7. I have nothing to add :p

    Why 333 contracts?

    I have an excel sheet accounting for the most basic parameters of a system and it is certainly possible to compound your account into infinity if you have an edge. At least in theory :)

    At a certain point, different for each person I guess, size will start to change how you trade. Losing streaks are very real, even for experienced traders. What will happen if you take several consecutive max losses in a row after reaching a new equity/contract size peak? Will you overtrade more and damage your account further? Lose confidence in your system and start cutting your profits short?

    I will resume full-time trading in late August and may consider starting a public journal documenting my trades and posting a blotter. Account size will be $10 000 and I plan on allocating $5000 per contract. I have to weigh the pros and cons of starting a journal before doing it.

    Maybe I`ll be swinging 1000 lots in a few years :p
    #17     Jul 15, 2011
  8. Many traders spend a lot of time (years, decades? ) "creating" a system that at the end of the road will not work with any size worth trading.

    For example, many "price action" traders gravitate towards the CL, when it is obvious that their method/system/whatsisname they are developing (most of them very discretionary) will completely break down if they attempt to trade it with as few as 5 contracts, just on stop slippage for example.

    Just one of the many issues with getting bigger. Generally it is much easier getting in than getting out, and nobody likes to talk about getting out. Getting in?. Sure: Sell 2,000 ES at the market, you'll get a fill within 3-4 ticks in RTH. Now try getting out of that, without losing an eye...
    #18     Jul 15, 2011
  9. Blotto


    In and out the ES at market most of the time - the 1/4 is a cost of doing business. 200 will get done at the inside market most of the time during NYSE hours. Even if the spread opened to a half on the last 133, this can be overcome. So I don't consider that the chap who wants to make a million starting with 1 lot need concern himself with liquidity issues ere the end.

    I agree. However, as an exercise to see how far an account can be taken starting with 1 lot, you press 1 lot per say $3k on any trade where you have an edge.

    I'm not suggesting that a beginning trader attempt this. I think this requires a battle hardened professional, for want of a better phrase. I think someone who usually clips 50s could handle trading 200 in a side account for an experiment. You're not trading in 50 lots until you've had years in the business, or are new and heading for a blowup!

    I'm trying to engage in interesting discussion about the possibilities and limits, if any, in this business. The fact is that much more is possible for the successful aspirant than "grinding out a living".

    I suppose whether a person could run a sub four minute mile was "such a meaningless question" to the sport of athletics. Why even bother to ask, right?

    One of the best posts I've seen recently. People by and large do not understand what the market is, how it works, and consequently how to use it! If you're that rotton at execution to have difficulties getting your 5 lot done without getting raped in CL, you really have no business trading. Certainly none of these "discretionary strategies" ... guesswork perhaps ... have any merit for building a personal fortune from the market, for managing OPM, or any other professional activity.

    Those who build a trading model which is based on understanding liquidity will be rewarded long term.

    Anyway, the thread is an interesting focal point and I hope some are inspired...
    #19     Jul 15, 2011
  10. the1


    I use 90% of my cash for position trading and long-term investments in equities and 10% for futures. The biggest daily loss in the futures market that I will take is 2%. I have a circuit breaker set at that amount. I also trade for clients through linked accounts and the same 2% applies to their accounts. Since I occasionally use wide stops I need to have that 2% to protect me should a major news event occur. I have technology backups in case my primary internet goes down or I lose power to the house. I have a battery backup that will last for 20 min's, which is plenty of time to get flat.

    #20     Jul 15, 2011