Well we closed down only 92 or so certainly a spunky market but at one point I gazed at my watch list- my most recently typed symbols I guess, stks I watch, own or have sold and the picture was a lot uglier than the averages would have you believe... AMAG 67.20 -2.82 (-4.03%) 1.13B THOR 20.95 -0.30 (-1.41%) 1.13B NSTK 15.30 -0.64 (-4.02%) 392.79M YTEC 14.04 -0.27 (-1.89%) 133.77M IMMR 17.87 -0.03 (-0.17%) 500.36M VII 10.65 -0.36 (-3.27%) 50.94M CMH 1.34 -0.02 (-1.47%) 57.06M AKNS 9.25 -0.07 (-0.75%) 218.54M CSIQ 11.00 -0.02 (-0.17%) 301.83M GIGM 17.98 +0.10 (0.56%) 948.13M ARA 74.22 -1.71 (-2.25%) 7.69B GAIA 24.70 -0.74 (-2.91%) 609.25M Am I THAT bad? We'll leave that to history but i think under the covers here things are starting to smell a little bit. Now I'll have to bump my thread Sell Stocks Oct 12th- 10 stocks to buy now because that was a date we had picked out a month ago and it's almost upon us. What will be the big catalyst to Next Weeks decline? I'm thinking maybe the big TXU debt sale doesn't go off that well. That's supposed to be the easiest sell of what's coming... so if that were to flop... the market would DROP. Big time. JUST a thought I am not short. just cautious. and full of cash. ~ stoney
Naz advance decline not so rosy, 12 to 9 or thereabouts... this is more under the hood stuff we are starting to see divergences and lack of participation it's all shipping stocks and China nothing else, that cannot last... Feels like the turnaround is upon us. I have a tooth ache and am going to the dentist I expect a slightly down market when I get back. Big sell off Monday. I think. I have some info on the txu deal from my hedge fund- it's done but it's ugly. " by ugly I mean that the debt service is huge and likely means aggressive asset sales to fund it. The cash flow is low risk, and the deal wouldn't have gotten done if the numbers didn't work."-- Do we celebrate the it's done or the ugly? I say the ugly because this is one of the more secure cash flow stories and first data and others may be in some jeopardy if they are to many give ins to the buyers.... It's all in the interpretation folks but when you have an extended market, interpretations can be fickle. ~ stoney
Well I guess it's just me and A$$hole (his name- I like the guy) and Wareco here. How about a little credit here? I tell you with the Nas up 30 and the S&P up nine that I will come back to a red market and look. Today will be our third distribution day and friday or Monday our fourth. The momentum high of this cycle was supposed to hit on the 9th and it hit on the 10th. The turn day is Monday. And down we go.... I lot of posters trying to call a top now. Don't like that the more arguing the better I don't want to be ion the popular side of the trade. The way I see it now we start to drift and first they will tell us it's not a correction, then they will tell us it's good for the market and then they will tell us it's overdone. ~ stoney
I like This Guys Attitude! tacticaltradingoutlook.com: >Total volume finally expanded on a huge reversal day. It was almost the exact inverse of a climax low with volume accelerating after the direction change. Selling overwhelmed buying though strength in a few Dow stocks did help the balance of power on the NYSE side of the market. Internally the market is coming down from an overbought condition. However, the internal upside momentum pattern of rising lows in many metrics has not fully given way at this time. One more big down day will crack it wide open, which is likely over the next one or two days. Based on the number of minor divergences that have manifested since the first of October, the correction we have been looking for is likely under way.
Lets Update Where We Stand- Anybody read through the IBM report? No. Anybody tag along the conference call or read the transcript? Too busy fixated on Google... It's called whistling past the graveyard folks. The talking heads where all a twitter yesterday about these great earnings in tech. IBM is tech so lets look under the hood. IBM had weak hardware results. IBMâs reported earnings of $1.68 a share on revenue of $24.1 billion, just ahead of Wall Street estimates. IBMâs earnings conference call was full up with hardware worries. >>Systems and technology group revenue was down 10 percent to $4.9 billion as sales of System x and System z (down 31 percent) fell short. Hardware revenue was more than $600 million short of cowmen and Co. analyst Louis Nicosiaâs estimates!!!! Oh baby a weak dollar can only cover up so much. IBM CFO Mark Loughridge said that a slowdown in demand from FINANCIAL SERVICES firms crimped sales. Bottom line: Amid a credit crunch, financial services firms weren'tât thinking much about buying mainframes. Hummm do Financial Services like Mortgage companies do adds on Google???? âThe weakest sector performance was in the financial services sector. By geography, the impact was most pronounced in the U.S. By brand, the largest impact was in System z, facing a difficult compare. Outside of this, financial services sector revenue performed in a more typical range within financial services sector,â said Loughridge. âThe U.S. was the major geography affected from a brand standpoint. zSeries was the major brand affected. I think thatâs logical, zSeries has about 50% of their business in (the financial services sector), so I donât think that is a surprise, given the sector dynamics.â Tech customers are also HOLDING OFF BUYING!!!! They are waiting for their quad-core servers and evaluating their options, said Loughridge, who noted that much of IBMâs hardware line will get quad-core chips from Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) in the fourth quarter. Of course tech purchasing agents for companies aren't waiting for a new chip they are scaling back for the same reason they are FIRING people-- a slowdown is coming.... ~ stoney
Well guys. When they write the book on spotting tops won't you submit dear Stoney's name? this post dated Oct 9th was the exact day of the markets high. The DOW has fallen 3.7% since that day. The whole market is for sale and suddenly after just yesterday insisting everything was fine, now the world is ending. Some buyers came in late in the day into retail-I was one of them! Others are panicking. It's amazing to watch. First they tell you it's not happening. Next week they are going to tell us it's good for us. I heard the first of those today. Lets take a second and rest. What is happening? The bond market is signaling it's discontent with the debt situation. We had this rescue fund put together that only served to spook the market further. We have entered too many of these new lexicons into the common investors dictionary lately-- it was bad enough in the old days when we had to learn about derivatives... For the average person with an IRA this is all too much-- it's ENRON esque' . Several business leaders have suddenly gone on record that a great slowdown is coming. Ok that puts the Fed more into play... but that also puts the dollar on the brink... What we need now is a bit of lying. Did I say that? Yes. Ben needs to tell us everything is alright. I say Move 1/4 point Fed Funds and 1 /2 point discount window and then signal an end to easing. The market may be trying to push Ben into a move and may have succeeded it's pushed me into this camp vs staying pat which I would have preferred just a few days ago. When we started this thesis we didn't call for much of a correction and though it would be easy to move the yard sticks now for new information... non of that info was new to me. I'm looking at job numbers , I'm looking at earnings and GDP and Gold and Oil, corporate construction, I know something is up... This is quite scary... but for once bonds I think have overdone it and stocks though humbled are favored here. Lets just stop the relentless hype about Tech. Jesus if I hear GOOGLE is still up today one one more time!!!-- WE ARE DOWN 369 Guys!! Anyway what am I trying to say? Today Elite Trader is filled with Hindenberg omens and other rare metrics... I in fact I used cycle theory and planetary to get to where I am::: This is crazy stuff... The Fed cannot fix everything and so now the best move is to lie and say things are getting better.... Ok Maria is going to make me dive out the window here. 3:52 and I want to buy more nothing comes to mind though...~stoney