I mean generally I agree, that's why I said don't normally trade Asia but there are a few things to consider: The 30% probability you're generating off of accumulative data over time I am assuming? In this particularly scenario the reverse direction actually it's not that high. It's probably more like 30% to go up 5% probability to reverse. Given how active the Daily, Weekly and even Monthly currently are, is also why I want to be long tonight prior to tomorrow. The probability to get a lower entry is also reduced, although certainly 8:30 can cause a dip and if it does I'll look to buy that. I just didn't look at the charts right at asia open so I had a poor entry, but outside of that if I had a better entry an overnight long here is actually the correct thing to do. I am sure if you're an active trader you've been noticing the micro pa as well, a lot of aggressive selling getting absorbed without any move down, often gets punished as I posted last night, but we're still in that same overall pattern. So expectation is that will continue. Lastly (and I am aware this is not a good thing) I am looking to make money and one of my funded accounts I am using more aggressively. However, the rest I will not do this on and trade it like I already have the money I want. It's a different mentality when you have what you need vs you don't. Although yes I need to earn having what I need either through trading or other means, am aware of that. Doesn't change the reality of the situation, but am aware of it and only being aggressive on one account. So long story short this is a very unique setup, that actually allows you to ignore standard stats via discretionary adding in all the above mentioned factors and any others I may have left out.
This may be long, but please as a favor hear me out on this. If none of these points, concepts or information resonate's with you at all, than in the future I will never ask you read another message of mine. Thank you. ****The only data point you presented was that the markets went up significantly. Understand you're not shorting it, but this is very close to the same logic and reasoning why other people are shorting this, keep shorting this and why it will continue to most likely go higher. So, yes I am taking advantage of this pattern until it clearly ends. There's some people on here who say they don't buy the highs, well if you've been shorting lately you've been buying the highs. So there's something telling you not to short this personally, I am just adding in additional confluences and explaining why not only is it not a good probability short, it's actually a good probability long still. **** The markets are not really 0 to 100 flat, it's more like a cylinder where if you go up or down enough, it resets essentially back to 0 particularly for intra-day trading. For a basic example that most traders regardless of style or level could understand : Let's say two EMA's are positioned a certain way and we get overbought on the 5 minute. That could be a sign that a pull back is much higher probability than further extension. However, if those same two EMA's are positioned differently and we get overbought, that relation is completely different. Now the probability is much higher that we move up prior to a pull back. So just thinking a chart went from 0 to 100 so let's short, it definitely can an advantage, but not near the edge of understanding when that relationship is irrelevant. What if you get stuck in a market environment that produces 40% of your over all losses shorting the 100 range, but that market environment was only a fraction of your back testing? That's why and how bots or even manual traders that do well, all the sudden lose a lot, because lack of context and overall market understanding. It's why context and experience is always king. They just happen to be using an entry vehicle that is in line with current market environment, but it has nothing to do with actual skill or long term succes. Another point that I did already say but is important is that larger charts like monthly and weekly and extremely active. Therefore the expectation is on smaller time frames even the daily we're expecting larger outside moves than normal. So the less probability thing would be for us not to do that. Personally for me Asia went up quite nicely as expected. Almost a 100 point up move on NQ to me is sizable for overnight. Yes, I am well aware the market moving in your direction could just be luck or randomness. But I very logically and clearly laid out multiple reasons as to why this would be the expectation and it did end up happening. Also mentioned a day before last night's comments, of the overall pattern we were in and a lot of trapped sellers still. So that's the best I can do is give logical, sounds and mathematical reasoning and than it plays out as expected. So, if you want to chalk it up to luck, that's fine impossible for me unequivocally defend that. What are your thoughts on all of this? Thanks for taking the time to read.
Have a neutral bias right now. Just waiting for open, don't really see anything clearly. Nice move up overnight as expected, but didn't execute well enough to capture it. Will move back to long bias if PA shapes up nicely.
What I did today: Traded two funded accounts and passed Topstep combine in one try(over 3 day period). So that's another funded account I have. Moving forward completely done with evals. I have a live account as well as a lot of funded accounts to trade. Really was not able to get fully rid of my long bias, even though per comment earlier I knew given pre-market action was best to be neutral and take longs and shorts as they come. Pretty bad trading day in general, thankfully I kept size reasonable and did end up taking both shorts and longs eventually. Took some good sized stop outs in MES. Not great stats, but just focused on growing the accounts and splitting the risk via different strategies and risk profiles.
Starting neutral on the day no bias and just take setups as they come. If 8:30 doesn't shake things up enough, we could have similar action to yesterday or I may have to sit out until I recognize what's going on. Too many competing factors for both long and short scenario for me to want to give a heavy bias to one side.
Actually couldn't keep completely neutral as pattern was saying we would ultimately take out HOD again, but pretty miserable PA and difficult to catch. Did not particularly well and had a lot of losses, but kept size under control and had a good profitable day by my standards. Results below account "A":
Actually I am just complaining about the PA because the day wasn't as easy as I wanted it to be. Looking back at my comment I already mentioned and was aware PA could be like yesterday if 8:30 didn't shake things up. 8:30 did very little. Plus after the market had been trading for a while, it was fairly obvious there was a decent chance that action was going to be choppy and keep taking micro stops on each side. So, if I really wanted to I could of chose to not trade since 8:30 didn't shake things up. Overall it wasn't really that bad of a day to trade, just took more mental energy than normal.
My topstep funded got activated tonight, it was only $11.00 on sale so decided to buy one and paid activation fee and it's good to go. So I'll post those results as well moving forward. I'll try to be more controlled on that one and maybe post those trades since I plan on being more picky and patient with that account.