These were the same questions being asked prior to 2007-08. We know where the "new money" came from to support the equity markets, it was called Quantitative Easing. The demographic black hole was real and still is. Remember all of the equity outflows as the market was rising during long stretches between 2009-16?
yes, forget all these mumbo jumobs by all these previous poster that back it up with their fancy talk by using lagging indicators. they don't predict. you can just listen to me. yes it is the beginning of a bear market because i said so. you can quote me on that. in 3 or 6 months, you can come back and quote me on it. use this post.
This is a ridiculous thread. There is now bear market in sight whatsoever. This is just a correction and for what it's worth I call it over. Pinbars in stocks at weekly level and some other stuff tell me to buy now. We'll see more than the last high.
SPY 220 very possible, SPY 160 also possible in next 12-18 months. When major corrections occur, the downtrend is protracted over time and hovers around 50% of the peak values. P/E ration of 31x on SPX is a solid bubble territory. This is further supported by near parabolic nature of charts on both SPY and DIA. Parabolic corrections take their time to reach final correction points. Gold is a good offset to bear markets.
I scanned through these pretty quick (with volume off)...but it looks like they're likening the conditions of 2015 to those of 1981. Is the Cliff's Notes version, "Ride this bull, it's gonna be big"? Sorry, I just don't think I have it in me to watch 70 mins of youtube vids with more studies than I have on all of my charts combined (I have a strong preference for reading over watching video). Is there a written version of the analysis? It is kinda cool to see it broken down like that. Little generation from 1930-1945 came of age (financial maturity) in the 60s and early 70s. They were book-ended by the GIs & wives and the Baby Boomers who's years of financial maturity would have been 1945-1965, and 1980-1995 respectively. For those playing the home game, you might notice that 35 is the age I'm using for financial maturity--which also lines up nicely with child rearing; effectively it's the generational changing of the guard, IMO (special note for greatest generation, they financially matured earlier in the sense that they had vast government subsidy--Marshal Plan, Eisenhower Interstate, etc.--and war time payment--both women in the workforce, and men with modest earnings but no expenses).
I am skeptical that past market tendencies have much predictive value any more. HF and algorithmic trading have changed the game. How much? I don't know. I'm in the camp of trying to align with the current trend (if one can be detected), while also paying attention to VIX and VIX futures.
There really isn’t any reason for anyone to always be All-In —all of the time. If you follow trends then you follow it until it doesn’t work. You might be late for the easy money PUT party and it’s time to wrap it up. Of the 35 largest correction since 1950, over 70% resembled a double bottom, with frequent daily reversals and high volatility. And they drag on, but don’t go anywhere. I’m sure there are plenty of people who will boast they can thrive in this environment. But I believe the biggest returns are when you can catch the wind, and just glide and add to your positions as you go. If you were long in 2017, caught January, and play the sell-off brilliantly, then there certainly isn’t any reason you need to take a position at all. Buy a couple cruise tickets, because the markets are probably just going to be crazy
Both. Mutual fund selling and hedge fund shorting. It is a big fat feast for the shorts. Come join the party this Monday.