Observation: The most heralded book on Booms and Busts, This Time is Different by Reinhart and Rogoff. Copyright 2009 http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640 .....is frequently referred to by those who correctly called busts and had it right not long before in spite of the mocking of them: Druckenmiller, Roubini, Schiller. Mauldin appears to be judicious in not joining them as ardently, but I read his End Game in 2011 shortly after it came out; he is another drawing on the book. Mauldin I inferred has a thin veil between him and these others. End of observation Opinion that works for me (not necessarily for anyone else): I find it premature (not wrong, but early) to be deriding those guys unless one can be certain of the incredible deleveraging required by (1) current leaders effectively beginning the process now, and (2) subsequent leaders continuing the process effectively, and of course (3) citizens allowing an effective process. All three have to exist in order to dodge uncomfortable decline in standard of living. Decline in standard of living has been occurring in the last two decades in abolute terms. In relative terms, we have accomodated ourselves to it gradually like the frog swimming in increasing heated pot of water. Advancement in technology our savior ? .... If only these above described modalities come in to existence. End of opinion SAVIOR (with their respective consequences): default austerity inflation growth combination of the above in some alchemy that is effective other ? Oh........ and let's have more babies. That should be fun.
Yes........let's have babies. Next to the fiscal black hole we are headed into, the worst next dimension for us is that which piles on to the debt crisis..... (1) The millennials coming out of college without jobs for the last 4 years; (2) The demographics that can't sustain the baby boomers' retirement, especially without reform. The millennials don't want babies in the quantities we need them, arguably since they can't add to household formation. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3722183#post3722183
This is going to be a real disaster, the longer they are out of work, the harder it is to get a job. There is a very good chance they might be permanently unemployed, their entire lives destroyed by this one economic depression.
I am actually bullish at this point. Too many people saying negative things about the markets. That's not a bearish sign to me.
Possibilities for the millennials (generation Y)........ (1) The probability they will find some work in the near future is high, in my opinion, even if "underemployed" for their education. (2) The probability becomes better over time as attrition of the senior employed occurs. After all, it is the baby boom generation in the lead years of the boom that are in their mid- 60's now, and many will not chose to work in their later 60's and early 70's window of age. (3) They can remain current by taking occasional studies in their work interest. As society needs them in the next 5 to 10 years, refresher courses in college and vocational schools will become available. Regardless, between them and the baby boomers, Social Security and Medicare are on quick sand. Immigration anyone ?
If public sector workers' salaries were tied not to inflation but to the national debt then the public sector bureaucrats would have to try harder. As for medicaid etc. ? Scrap them, they are too expensive. Politicians - tie their salaries to the national debt too. Half the military Legalize drugs and scrap drug control etc. Could they do it ? Probably not . The bums would still be arguing the toss when it all collapses. So get some blood thirsty foreigner in to kick a lot of butts imho scrap democracy - nice idea but the end result is awful. a US problem. Good luck guys.
No, I definitely mean immigration. It has been a current events topic for the last year. Currently, newly proposed legislation being hotly worked on in Congress and in the news weekly about its progress ("path to legal citizenship" for undocumented Mexicans). The need to keep scholars we educated from foreign countries to remain in the U.S. rather than failing to facilitate their immigration here. Divisive and arguable issues. But at its root (don't overlook as one of the drivers) is finding ways to prop up S.S. and Medicare that the Senate majority and President refuse to do.