Stanley Druckenmiller didn’t learn a thing from his epic trading fail — maybe you can

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by truetype, May 16, 2018.

  1. truetype

    truetype

  2. trader99

    trader99

    I was just going to post that article. You beat me to the punch! Apparently, even great investors/traders mistime the market in a big way! It looks so obvious in hindsight with TA...

    Also, I think it was people like him who shorted too early and bought late because of FOMO that caused the NASDAQ to go parabolic in 1999/2000! Momentum feeds upon itself.
     
  3. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    This is a stupid, hodge-podge article. SD actually got back in time for the last part of the NADSDAQ ride after trying to short it, but we never learnt if he got taken to the cleaners or was able to get out with some gains. I assume he lost big, but they only showed one stock, and for a fund manager what is 1 stock?

    Just like when BTC was at 3K lots of people thought "no, I am not getting long, FOMO will kill me" then BTC went to 10K and even that was a good getting in point.

    Edit:

    I looked it up, SD left Quantum in 2000 April and the Nasdaq was still higher then when he bought in with that 6 billion, around September.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/29/...huffles-management-as-big-funds-struggle.html
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  4. trader99

    trader99

    It's all about exits. If you looked at the chart of Verisign in the article when he bought in Sept 1999 then add some more in Feb 2000. NASDAQ peaked in March 2000. He could have exited everything for a huge profit. It was a huge run-up. Hopefully, he didn't hold until 2002 when it went down 98%.

    So his exit strategy or lack thereof killed him. Not his entries..
     
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Look up my edit. In 2000 April when he left Quantum the average NASDAQ stock was still higher than earlier in September. The article didn't tell us how much he lost, (he probably didn't manage the position all the way) and going long in September was still the right choice.

    He must have made money in 1999 and was down only in 2000, but on a cost base, that 6 billion invested should have been still in profits by the time of his leaving Quantum.

    As I said, really badly written piece....
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  6. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    Is he still a billionare..... Or , banging a Sub $1000 FX account?
    One should not criticize the latter.
     
  7. JSOP

    JSOP

    Why is everybody so obsessed with learning from his supposedly epic trading fail? Who is this guy? I saw this article in MarketWatch and now it's here on ET? LOL
     
  8. Geez its right in black and white or in this case red and white:

    When asked about his experience, Druckenmiller said I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basketcase and I couldn’t help myself. So maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that.”
     
  9. He was more of a fundamentals/scuttle-butt/'edge' only, doesn't know how to read a chart, just like Soros who is famous for his inability to make money in FX. That said, I'm a big fan of Stan
     
  10. qxr1011

    qxr1011

    it is not easy to stick to the investing/trading method, especially if you do not have one
     
    #10     May 17, 2018