squeeze on the indexes to new highs?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by empee, Aug 11, 2005.

  1. empee


    with oil at $65++ any retracement will be an excuse for the bulls to squeeze, if they are able to even maintain a consolidation at this level, coupled with the sky high short interest, it feels like a monster squeeze will be on on ANY decent pullback...

    I dont mean like $1-$2 pullback either i mean like $10-$15.. Im not arguing that it cant go to 70 or 80 before a pullback but if they longs are holding the indexes here with $65 oil thats just plain amazing!

    why? cause markets cant fall with high short interest IF all participants know how many shorts there. Longs know that shorts have to cover at some point, and thus if they hold it sideways long enuff shorts lose.

    Additionally, shorts have time value against them. Longs have the "buy and hold investor' who will hold for 20+ years while shorts have a negative time component (paying out dividends) meaning that shorts face time erosion (they have to time the market) whereas long just have to hold it sideways until the shorts cover taking us higher.

    Most likely scenario is that we get a false breakout (from the shorts covering) and then no go cause there aren't any real longs.. but who cares and what do I know I just trade signals so what do I care :)

    Just remember, every BREAKOUT starts as a SHORT SQUEEZE!
  2. Where are you getting your short interest data from?