don't you think the possible bailout of fnm/fre is priced into eur/usd??? i mean that would be a bit to obvious
If anything this news is USD positive. Reading this and most other posts on this board reminds me of how many clueless idiots there are out there and why I no longer waste my time with ET. Most of you guys had better get a job driving cabs in NY, Chicago, or even Mexico City or Mumbai, definitely more profitable for y'all in the long run.
see this is what i thought that's why I'm still long refiners because i believe crude will continue to go down, we are in a deflationary environment.
I'll probably open Sunday night down about 2k+ if I'm lucky since I'm also short ER2. Which means, it'll take me all day or until Tuesday to make up the 2k depending on how things go. FNM gave me about $1200 after hours and I'm going long USDJPY when market opens - massive hammer formed today. And crude + gold, looking alright.
13 handle equivalent move to upside after the futures closed ? huh ... just on some news of fannie and freddie ? or cramer said lower rates on tv ?
-If anything this news is USD positive.- hmmm ... so thats why the euro rallied 30 pips in in its last hour friday to fake out everyone who bought oh yes ... gold and oil rallied too in that time frame so who is blazes is right on the move the ones who sold the dollar and bought oil and gold or the ones who bid up the stock index ETF's ?
saw this on the bloomie ... maybe this weeks action had something to do with the timing of the announcement ? -Japan's yen rallied against all of the world's major currencies this week on concern credit-market losses will lead to a global recession. The Australian and New Zealand dollars dropped to two-year lows today on bets a slump in stocks and commodities encouraged investors to reverse carry trades. -
SPX is likely to open up more than 15 handles on Sunday on the FRE/FNM news but but those gains are not likely to hold for long if there's no other news. However in my opinion the wild card is LEH. If a deal with Nomura or KDB is announced over the weekend, look for a 40-handle move up in SPX on Monday. It wasn't by chance that LEH was up 10% yesterday, and if KDB does invest $6 billion for a 25% stake in LEH as rumored, LEH's implied value after the dilution is over $26/share, well above LEH's closing price of $16.20. That would boost bullish sentiment on the financials and the broad market for a few days at least.
Landis, i have to disagree on at least one refiner. If you take a look at what you can get for selling FTO April puts right now (especially if FTO dips back below 18 again!) i think you'll see what i mean. There hasn't been a hurricane in Wyoming for quite some while!