Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

LJ : Please see http://www.chartpatterns.com/ascendingtriangles.htm

I assumed there was some correlation between an ascending triangle and a flat top pennant... Apparently there is not


Yes, well, wretched "classical TA" leaves us all wondering why the damn things (pennants, triangles, wedges, etc) don't break in the "correct direction". I have looked at the probabilities and aside from the fact that one is dealing with a "probability", there is the further problem of feeling comfortable with how they came up with the probability. It might almost be tolerable except for the fact that the probabilities for the "correct" break are often 60:40. Not nice - too edgy. Booleans be much better.

lj

 

A case of Booleans 1 : Edgers 0-5% (with 95% confidence).

 

1 entry, 1 reverse, 1 wash, +5.75 Points

Entered on Extreme YM Volume, and after seeing the ES bounce off RTL of carryover channel
B2B on YM confirm the right side
Reverse on watching price struggle to reach LTL on Bar 4 x
Wash when FTP formed

Lesson: When you are on the right side and see continuation you HOLD!

 

P1,

C'est vrai, très vrai.

lj

 

Jander, don't forget, that in std TA, the patterns get stronger with duration - in other words, a monthly or weekly pattern is strongly than a daily.

Extrapolating that down to our fractal -- a 2-3 bar pattern has no strength to imply a tendency to break in one direction vs. another. Now, I still believe that if a triangle forms over many bars, even on a 5min fractal, there will be some return of classical TA. But I wouldn't apply it to these tiny little formations - as said before, just view them as pauses.

 

1 entry, 4 reverses, 1 exit, +9.75 points

Enter long on bounce off RTL of YM carryover channel
Reverse short on Formation FBO and decreasing black
Reverse long on expected FTT with extreme YM volume - held long through seller exhaustion and smart money acc (FTT)
Reverse short on FTP FBO with increasing red volume
Reverse long on fanned PT3 with increasing black volume
exit to get lunch

 

+7.75 Charts and comments to follow.

time note 15 = 10am

1 SHORT -.75

ES;SLD;1;1469.50;15:00:47;
ES;BOT;1;1470.25;15:03:58;

2. LONG +2.25

ES;BOT;1;1470.25;15:03:58;
ES;SLD;1;1472.50;15:12:50;

3. SHORT -.25

ES;SLD;1;1471.75;15:14:28;
ES;BOT;1;1472.00;15:24:27;

4. SHORT -1.50

ES;SLD;1;1470.00;15:27:53;
ES;BOT;1;1471.50;15:30:24;

5. LONG +1.75

ES;BOT;1;1472.00;15:32:52;
ES;SLD;1;1473.75;15:41:21;

6. SHORT -2

ES;SLD;1;1472.25;15:42:47;
ES;BOT;1;1474.25;15:44:11;

7. LONG -.25

ES;BOT;1;1474.25;15:44:11;
ES;SLD;1;1474.00;15:50:16;

8. SHORT +2.5

ES;SLD;1;1474.00;15:50:16;
ES;BOT;1;1471.50;16:01:04;

9. SHORT -.50

ES;SLD;1;1470.75;16:06:22;
ES;BOT;1;1471.25;16:07:39;

10. LONG -1

ES;BOT;1;1471.25;16:07:39;
ES;SLD;1;1470.25;16:09:27;

11. SHORT -.75

ES;SLD;1;1470.25;16:09:27;
ES;BOT;1;1471.00;16:12:58;

12. SHORT +7.75

ES;SLD;1;1469.50;16:14:37;
ES;BOT;1;1461.75;16:30:33;

13. LONG -1

ES;BOT;1;1463.75;16:49:14;
ES;SLD;1;1462.75;16:49:44;

 

Trade comments and chart attached.

 

trade comments attached.

 

From a strong digital photographer's view, a neutral light gray background. We use this for all digital work so as not to 'color bias' our work, especially if it is color critical (for example: Coke 'red').

I found it extremely interesting that Spydertrader's charts are setup this way. Perhaps he found something 'pleasing' to his eye, I don't know, but after 'seeing' the example of his 'work ethic' (ie. this and all the journals and his ability to communicate and teach) I wouldn't put it past him that he thought about minimizing distractions and 'chose' all his 'colors' purposefully.