I found the time period from 15:05 to the close to be very challenging. It started with the 15:05 bar on the ES. I anticipated and got what I thought was a PT3 for a down trend here (PT1=14:35, PT2=14:50) but the following bar turned out to be an FTT of the Red down channel and a PT3 for an continuation of the uptrend. The 15:15 bar closed above my Red RTL, but not above the next (Maroon) RTL. Here I thought I must have misjudged the 15:05 bar as the PT3 and this bar (15:15) was the real PT3. So after reversing from my short with the increasing PRV of the 15:15 bar I again reversed on the 15:20 bar only to have that bar and the next morph into a FBP which of course had a rapid ascent. Lastly, the doji at 15:40 wasn't really a problem. Honestly I didn't see it as a reversal sign. Yes the YM had increasing red at this point, but (and this is not meant to discount the usefulness of the YM) it moves so much that I have started to train myself to apply less importance to its moves. In debriefing it seems I did not have the proper channels in place to see the FTT there. Anyway, the 15:45 bar was a surprise. They only way to negotiate it (at my level) was to be on my toes and exit at the break of the 15:40 low. chart in next post. -guava
Interesting. I sort of agree with you... but only if talking about a lower fractal. I find it very stressful to get chopped up reversing in the bugs.
And there are days like that ... You just don't know beforehand, so you'll have to try, and to trust (know) that on average you'll be ahead. Exactly when you'll decide that's a choppy day and you'll stay out, a nice trend will develop and you'll miss it. As somebody likes to say: just do it! It happened to me twice today: started with -5 points after two trades, went positive to +4.4 after four, went negative after eight, and stayed so until my last, finishing +3.85. Although I don't watch my P&L during trading, I knew that I was -5 after my first two trades. Today I simmed, because I'm evaluating the NinjaTrader, but I would've done the same thing anyway. I also keep an eye on the ES 15 min chart, and on the STO 5,2,3 and MACD 5,13,6.
Couple of questions for you Spyder re: your chart today if you feel like answering... 1] The point 1s that you have drawn in that coincide with previous pt3's in the channel: are these drawn in hindsight or as they are developing? Typically in the past we have fanned at these "channel walkout" points and Im not sure how you'd recognize the need to begin a new, shallower channel at these points. Have you given up fanning in lieu of beginning a new channel at each pt3 ? 2] Are there any practical advantages in drawing/recognizing pennants in regards to trading them? The ones you have drawn very rarely follow their 'universal TA' application in breaking the horizontal--which is not surprising as they are only 2-3 bars. I understand that these are signified by decreasing volume, so naturally you'd wait to see increasing vol to determine direction--but isnt this always the case? 3] Quite a few of the FTTs you have drawn in toward the end of the day (1:30-3:30) are also VEs on smaller fractals, including the shallower channels referenced in [1] above. Does this not defeat the purpose of the FTT in the first place? Every (or almost every) FTT we get can be drawn to be a VE on a shallower channel. Have I misinterpreted the ftt as a change signal of trend, when in actuality it only signifies a change in pace?
that's the problem. the roadmap given by spyder is clear, it's just I couldn't see the moment and the form of DOM/2pair which renders meaningful action.