TraderD72 I appreciate you're respons very much. >most importantly, wait for volume (or PRV) to be above the >previous Volume bar I will focus more on this starting today. It's just that sometimes point3 comes after 5 minutes (which is quick) and sometimes after 30 minutes. That having said, volume does give the clue and the point 3 almost always comes later than I expect. regards, Ivo
Hello, Just an example of my (typical) first trade. Long at 9:45:39 at 1509.75 Reason to get in: point 3 up. (outside bar) Got out the next bar at 1510.25 Reason to get out: bar 4 and bar 5 did not show increasing PRV. Increasing PRV is what we need after a point 3. The 9:50 bar could just as well have formed a point 3 down. Just a note: I do realize YM was moving sideways from 9:46 - 9:54 The result: profit +.5 but missed a 6+ point move. What mistake did I make? regards, Ivo
Not Holding. Seriously, decreasing black volume in an up channel is what? A lateral. So we had lateral price movement to a NEW pt3 (bar 6) up of a STEEPER up channel. Note for today: check out the first three bars again. Today is not 'typical'. What insight could this have given us to hold that first trade? Here was my result: <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1708702>
Hi, Interesting to see we have the same entry. First two bars: increasing red. The third bar is change and after that price was moving sideways indeed (could be seen well on YM) but I was already out. But the outside bar broke the tape to the upside. 9:45 could just as well have formed a point 3 down. We did not get increasing PRV at the 9:45 bar or the 9:50 bar and it is not a bad idea to quickly get out then (it saved me in the past). Apart from this (my) str/sq did not give a signal. So how long should we wait for increasing PRV? So my thinking was: bar 1 + 2 increasing red (so now we know the dominant is red). Then retracement (decr black) and point 3 down. regards, Ivo
So why didn't you go short? Did what must come after a pt 3 down, 'happen'? Try looking at the exit as a point where one might short. If it isn't a good entry for a short, perhaps waiting is a good idea.
Hi, Increasing red should have happened + the uptape broken. (in reversed order The tape up was broken to the downside but no increasing red. However, it's the same story here. Price could have gone down until 1508 before we would even see or notice the increasing red... Should I have allowed price to go 2 points against my point of entry? And even if it had gone back until 1508 it could have just as easily gone up until 1520 just as it did. Anyway, I think it was a minor mistake to exit. The bigger mistake was not getting long again after my CO channel was broken on increasing volume / when the 9:50 bar was taken out. the 9:56 YM bar was very clear. I was still writing my log. Another way to explain this is that price did try to make a point 3 down that failed on the 6th bar. regards, Ivo