I am a big fan of the 20 sma myself. The value of it in addition to price and volume is appreciated here. Many times it can act as the trendline itself. Sometimes defining the channel that is happening. Can sometimes be used to assist on a trendline break with price and volume. As in a simple break of the 20 sma. Also, and number 1 for myself, I use it as a target when an FTT is identified. When the FTT is well above or well below the 20sma, that is where I look for price to return to the average of price. It is far from a lagging indicator when I use it in this situation. An FTT well above or below the 20sma MAY, very well average out. I now have a leading tool.
I sometimes use the slope of the LTL to project where a point 3 may fall, sort of "channels in reverse." Does anyone else do this? I find that sometimes it is quite reliable when used in context of channels, guassians and the 20sma.
The stall/formation component of JH method is, IMO, a major contribution to the field of technical trading. I have attached a document with a couple of charts and a couple of questions and would appreciate any comments. As a final question I would ask whether it is appropriate to fan the RTL regardless of how one wishes to interpret the "play of the bars"? TIA lj
looks like HVS (decrease vol in both colors) however since the vol was low, I think it's CCC, click on 'this chart' first post to see more graphic example http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83604&perpage=6&pagenumber=13
Good point. Perhaps then an HVS to CCC transition although against the CCC is the lack of convergence and centering of price. Truly though, the V is so low and the price action at the end of the series of bars so impressive, that a CCC designation may best characterize things. I wonder if there are "hybrids" of the two entities? Me not know. Thanks nkhoi. lj
Hello, I have somewhat mixed feelings about using a simulator. After a while I couldn't do it anymore. My motivation was dropping and my concentration. I was not focussed, I was bored, doing other things, taking too big risks etc. A nice trade did not give me satisfaction and a bad trade I was thinking what the ... and didn't care. I took trades too easy because it was just a similator after all.... I couldn't help thinking like that. This was all after a while. So far so good but it's really too early to say real trading does work for me as I am still in my first doubling however I am more concentrated, more serious, more patient, and it's actually fun to take points out of the market. Even if it's only one or two. Real trading forces me to take only the 100% sure trades or else I will blow out my account. On a similator I wouldn't care. It had nothing to do with reality. Perhaps this is not good but I'm just being honest. I think for me (and maybe in general) it's better to just annotate every day than using the sim. I just asked myself if I had enough skills to take a few points a day out of the market after almost a year of study. I decided to do it because the answer was "yes" and I was losing my motivation and would have stopped a journey that else could have turned out to be something beautiful. I didn't want that to happen. Even if you do well every day on simulator there's always that question in mind: "Can I do it for real?". If you don't do well you wonder: "Would it have happened for real?". "Would I have made the same decision if it was real?". No one knows the answers and it would have driven me nuts. It's simple. You just have to pay for real for making a bad decision just as you have to get paid for real for making a good decision. There's nothing else like it. Face it. It will always be like that. The market is my friend and tells me what it will do so no reason to be scared. I guess for some people it works but somehow I have the feeling that some of the best similator traders cannot make a dime when trading for real and vice versa. You need skills, experience and all that but also some balls. regards, Ivo
Ivo, this is exactly where I am at as well. I echo your sentiments. Since I have never seen anyone actually trade the JH method in real-time, it is kind of hard to know how one makes the leap from annotation to simulation to real. For me personally, trading real forces you to have patience. Every day, there are at least 2-3 clear-cut opportunities to capture a couple of points. If you don't exercise the patience to wait for these opportunities, the market will quickly tell you so. Real trading forces patience and discipline. For me, I believe it is better to trade real when you sure about the signals you are receiving and processing and just annotate when you're not.
The market will tell you what the opportunities are. They could be early recognition of an FTT (see my earlier post about the 20 SMA), a point 3, blasting out of a lateral on higher volume, whatever. Again, let the market tell you.
It should be noted that "clear-cut" is a function of one's skill level. What might be clear-cut to Spyder, might be confusion to me!