Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

Why exactly was your point one corrected on that chart and moved forward along the X-axis to the FTT?


edit: does it have something to do with the gaussians?

 

At that time nwbprop was just learning how to draw channels and was not annotating gaussians. This example shows the importance of understanding the PV relation for channel drawing. See my interpretation of Jack's two corrections on the attached picture.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1682546>

 

Hi Tums,
Thank you for the kind words. All I need is to catch a small part of one of the major trends a day.

good trading to you

 

cnms2,
will you hold at this seemingly RTL bounce point because of the VE?

 

I will be the first to confess... I passed up so many good trades, because I stared at the signal in disbelief.

 

I have gathered what I think is the majority of all the ES 5 minute charts Spydertrader has posted this year in the journal.

This is a pdf that you can open and view all the charts.
R/R had started posting all the charts already, but I wanted to update this to current.

 

I've experienced such moments when a channel rolls over after an FTT. You get increasing volume in your direction and you're just cruising along. Then the next bar shows price going against your direction on low volume and you think 'flaw'. Then you notice the bar starts growing and growing and more volume's coming in and you're standing there, looking at it thinking damn... let's exit for a wash. This happend to me friday at the 11:30 and 14:30 bars.

Thanks alot. Most forums clean-out their database every once in a while and it would be a shame if this type of thing got lost in a memory hole. It's also pretty convenient to have all the charts bundled.

Edit: Thought the charts were part of the PDF. I'm going to save them all on my computer though.

 

Please understand that I am aware that the “fine tools” component of Jack’s toolbox would permit one obtain a “high resolution” solution but that isn’t what I wish to talk about here. Basically I’m continuing on from the recent discussion on intrabar Gaussians beginning on page 1299 with swordsman’s query. This post is composed of a preamble and then a couple of questions.

IMO, the best solution to dealing with the problem of how to “read” a 5 minute ES price bar with respect to its volume partner, is cnms2’s practice of deconvoluting the 5 minute PV action into five 1 minute ES bars. It is a reasonable and workable compromise between only reading the 5 minute bar and the other extreme which is using all of the T&S data found in the 5 minute bar to “accurately” portray the true course of the price and volume moves on a “per trade” basis.

By “only reading the 5 minute bar” I mean that one looks at say a red price bar, begins at the open, runs up to the high, then down to the low and finally up to the close. Reverse the path (but still begin at the open ) for a black bar. Note that the convention being used here is that when the closing price is up with respect to the opening price the bar is black and it is red when the closing price is down with respect to the opening price. Note also that I’ve picked a particular order for the reading of price.

On the other hand, if one is fond of abusing and tormenting oneself, one could employ a similar approach using 5 minutes of T&S data and then interpret that result. Lots of luck with the interpretive phase.

There is a post with accompanying attachment from tums on 9-23-07 which shows how one could “read” a minute bar (or a 5 minute bar or a 0.05 minute bar). In some cases he has deconvoluted the price bar into a single line while in others he use multiple lines but note that he uses a critical modifier in the “line graph” row and that is “simplified”. It is critical because the only limit to the number of lines (with their associated intrabar Gaussians) he could use in his deconvolution is the T&S data. The same set of T&S data also provides the exact order in which the trades were carried out. It is useful to be aware that the current time limit for trade executions on for example the NASDAQ exchange is in the tens of milliseconds range. So for fun lets say that one can do 100 trades per second = 6,000 trades per minute = 30,000 trades per 5 minutes (see above paragraph).

So now to the couple or so questions:

(1) Context is of paramount importance. You must be aware of what went on “to the left” of where you are now and cannot just focus on the bar developing in front of you – if you do, you are screwed. Are there then contextual situations which would allow one to say that out of the literally thousands of ways some 5 minute bar could have developed, the most likely way is, for example, the one described for the red price bar in the third paragraph above? (or the black price bar in another context?). There is in fact only one way that 5 minute bar developed and if you wish to do the T&S thing for every 5 minute bar, we're up to 2,400,000 trades.
(2) If there are such situations, what are they? Are they when a point 1, 2, or 3 is being made? Are they at some other juncture (take your pick of which one)?
(3) Is the five 1 minute ES bar deconvolution protocol useful in understanding what might have gone on with respect to PV movement in the 5 minute ES bar?

I have already given my opinion about the answer to question 3 and simply do not have enough experience with the Hershey method to answer questions 1 and 2.

TIA

lj

PS: If I might be so bold as to interject a comment with respect to some earlier mention about Jack being hounded off ET - nothing could be further from the truth. If he really cared what that motley collection of fish, fowl and assorted vermin had to say, he would have left ages ago. Their mindless, repetitive, nonsensical verbiage is reflective of any number of petty traits not the least of which are the arrogance of ignorance and sloth.
PPS: Apologies for the windiness but ....

 

When you open the pdf, all the dates are there with their corresponding link for each chart.
Just click on the link next to the date you want.
Open the chart,and save to a file for Spydertrader ES charts. That way you can save the entire year to your computer.