The up tape starts on bar #5. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672295>
I think you should wait before entering or reversing until the retrace is fully played out and a point 3 develops on both the ES and the YM. I always welcome a retrace as they define the channel and allow me to see the trend. If you're afraid you'll end up on the wrong side of the market try to calm yourself down by remembering that you can always exit when you see increasing volume in the other direction. Your losses will always be limited this way.
I see and agree with what you have drawn for the ES 1 min fractal but I do not see that bar 5 is a FTT for the ES 5 min fractal. The way I would describe this field is that at the completion of bar 7, bar 4 is a point 2 but this is only because bar 7 has been set as the point 3. Your bars 4 and 5 appear to be slightly different than the comparable bars on RoughTrader's chart but whatever, if one draws a tape with bars 4 and 5 and with bar 5 (since it gives the maximum volatility) as the starting point for the left rail, then with the advent of bar 6, the left rail will be pushed out. The slope of this channel will be less than the one that you have drawn. If one wishes to reset the playing field as I outlined it, and end up with what you have drawn, then both rails must be redrawn. If this is kosher and I think it is, then we both end up with the same thing, albeit by different routes, e.g.. I did not use the ES 1 min to direct my actions but rather adhered rigorously to the rules laid down by Jack in his BCFBW document. BTW, your use of the ES 1 min is very cool but it also interesting that, if I'm correct, Jack's rules appear to get one to the same spot. Again, if I'm correct, this channel tightening is something that MAK has talked about and intuitively it is very pleasing to have a means whereby one can respond in a rational fashion to the changing face of the market by modifying the channel boundaries. lj
90 minutes / 9 trades: +10.5 points of 27.75 HL <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672391 width=488>
Bottom line: whatever works for each one of us ... For me, on the 5 min chart, a tape or channel starting with bars 4 and 5 doesn't make sense, so I cannot comment on it. I use the 1 min chart for a glimpse at the 5 min intra-bar action of both volume and price. The FTT I've drawn is based on intra-bar analysis.
I am posting this series of snapshots to get an idea of what I am reading wrong. ES has gone down on increasing volume. I am anticipating the down trend to resume. I am looking for a sign of change in the YM. YM had a VE on two channels so I am thinking we have change. This is when I entered short on a trade where price went 6.25 points in my favor. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672481">
Finally we have change. I am trying to view this from a different angle. So any suggestions are welcome. Ideally I should have held off on the trade for at least another 2 mins. How would one know to hold off until the real point of change? <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672498">