Nice trade Black, I find buying tight against a tapes right hand trend line is quite 'comfortable'. Actually I don't recall anyone talking about this yet but I'm still only up to March Getting close to April. Some tapes just have a nice symmetry and 'feel' - not to steep not to flat. Of course I must fight the urge to close at the tapes LTL and let it run across the channel. Cheers,
Yup thats a fair point. Of course I wonder is this going to BO or fail, is this FTT really a flaw. This can cause slight consternation on entries but on exits such rational thought often goes right out the window! But you are right of course there is some conflict going on here, I suspect that a large part of it is caused by previous experiences. Thanks for your continued thoughts on the matter. I am surprised that most peoples challenges seem to be technical rather than emotional, well at least thats where the majority of the discussion takes place
The answer depends on what resolution level one trades. Does Str / Squ factor into your sweeps? Do you trade both Dominant and Non-Dominant Traverses? Do Intra-bar changes give you signals for change? Do you monitor DOM, OTR and T & S? Do you stick to your chosen resolution level, and do you know if you should (not want to) trade on that level? Yet, the bar still managed to close on the upside. Perhaps, what you felt (viewed) indicated all selling Volume included a few buyers as well? Nothing ever happens "Out of Nowhere." People miss things, or fail to anticipate an important news item, but 'surprises' aren't on the menu here. I can't 'see' guessing either, but it certainly appears that is the path you've chosen here, or at minimum, you've allowed influences of the past to alter your thinking. See next parse for an example. Double Bottom? You have an HVS here which forms a lateral channel. Lateral Channels show the market in a stage of Even Harmonics (See Jack and PointOne's posts). Some, may even have viewed the action as a series of Dips. Either way, the signal, at some point, becomes a crystal clear example of Hold. What you call 'FTT's never provided the sequences of "What must come next?" In addition, the first Volume Bar after peak Volume fell right at the level where we normally see 'Flaws' materialize. Flaws which we did not have as an example since forming the Point Three of this down channel. If we choose to go monitor the YM during this time period, we receive an even clearer picture of what develops. The YM Stays nearly Flat (with the exception of the Pennant BO) and then returns to Dominant down) You don't need to know beforehand, but you should know, "What must come next?" You should also know Where you are, and Where you've been. When "What must come next?" - Doesn't - then you have a "What wasn't that?" - or as some like to say - WTF!! Really, it isn't this difficult. Did you have change on your trading resolution level? If so, change means take action (which action depends on the resolution). If you didn't have change on your resolution level, then the market requires no action on the part of the trader. Did you take action when you should not have been? Did Price cross a "line in the sand?" Lastly, if the market moves too fast for you (for whatever reason: broker connectivity, exchange latency, trader reaction times or high level news event), then stop trading at that resolution until such time that you can see and react appropriately. Again, for some, that half second is all that is required. For others, significantly greater amounts of time are needed. Trade where you front run the heard, not where you follow it. - Spydertrader
And to show that we all sometimes fail to see what is there - right in front of our noses ...... <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1670278> If you look at the above images from your seat in front of the computer, Mr. Angry is on the left, and Ms.Calm is on the right. Get up from your seat, and move back 12 feet, and PRESTO, they switch places!! - Spydertrader
I will read your full post more carefully for the other pieces of info you posted and possibly respond with some questions but I must respond to this one piece about the 12:50 bar. At the time we were at new lows intrabar (9725 ish), PRV was indicating that the down volume would exceed peak down volume of the channel. Then, price rocketed up. I know it didnt happen out of nowhere in reality buyers stepped in and price ripped higher. However, I could not anticipate that based on what I was watching. What in particular do YOU use that would have spotted this shift? I am assuming you must have traded this time as the mkt was really moving. Can you remember what you saw? I know I do not use all the tools that you do and thats why I am asking you what you use to see this sort of price action.
The short answer is - experience. The same Intra-Bar shifts we see today occur everyday, and while some, shift with lightening speed, one can, and does learn to 'see' these changes over time. However, the market doesn't start and stop like a driver stuck in Manhattan rush hour traffic. The market transitions from one state to another like the sweeping turns of Pacific Coast Highway. These tools may help, but the same sequences which unfold at the ES 5 minute level, do so in the exact same manner on the faster fractals. Just as equities provides the 'warm up drill' for Beginner Futures, so too does the ES 5 minute provide the 'warm up drill' for heading Intra-Bar. What I use to trade: YM, DOM, OTR and T & S. Filter your T & S to only show size (50 cars or more). - Spydertrader
Posting 2 ES charts... Start of the day is the first. Noon to close is the second. Have not started to"plot" gaussians (lord help me..lol) but I am doing PRV in my head the best I can. Critique away!!! Thanks in advance