Please point out on your chart where the above assertion takes place as I see nothing but decreasing black (green) Volume on your chart. - Spydertrader
bundle: What makes you so confident that there will be a pullback to a PT3? The last time there was an FTT in this channel (13:20), price kept right on trucking downward. This is irrefutably prediction, to take an FTT trade with the intention of holding through until a PT3 occurs. Why? An FTT is a signal for change, yes, but not necessarily for forest channels. It is a signal of change for the traverses within forest channels. In otherwords, nothing is stopping it from FBOing, in which case you would have to act on that and wash or take a small profit. So, if you are going to enter on FTTs, in the direction opposite the current trend, you HAVE to exit on the FBO, which you didn't. These are the "rules," which you didn't follow. My .02.
Even if you take this to an extreme and use this type of logic to avoid most trades, there will still be at least two "bread and butter" trades every day that bring home the bacon. FTT --> BO --> RETRACE --> PT3 --> PROFIT. Being so selective is painfully hard at first, but if you can make it work and then slowly add more to your already profitable repertoire, it can be a nice experience.
My apologies, I meant to say "decreasing" volume, which would be what one expects after an FTT. Thus, the 13:45 bar was the FTT, decreasing volume back to RTL and potential pt2 at high of that bar. 13:50 decreasing red, anticapating going to a pt3. Now, it's obvious that those two bars comprise a channel FBO. And, as has been the case for months, whether it be a ftt, pt3, fbo, or whatever, I admit I'm guessing with the assist of the avaiable tools. That IS the best I am able to do at this point. I'm posting these trades hoping that someones comments will nudge my perceptions enough to get me on track. I do not mean for this to be a disruption, I apologize if I've done that.
You traded a RTL & bar BO with no volume confirmation against a steep channel. I drew my gaussians a little differently, which put me on the right side of the market at that point. Anyway, you were at the beginning of a long crowded retrace at midday, and that was an area difficult to trade. When you missed a nice run, there is a temptation to jump into it at first sign of resumption. You should fight it, and just be as cool (and cautious) as usual. Good luck! <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1653056>
I think what it boils down to is if prediction or hope has anything to do with it, then it shouldn't be traded. You anticipate a PT3... why? Why wouldn't you anticipate a dominant traverse down? The only thing I can come up with is that you are hoping for a PT3, and acted based on hope. This is a binary system, or so they say, and you eliminate possibilities until you have one left. You had TWO possibilities left, and you picked one out of the blue.
Bingo, thats what I got out of the explanation. Hope as opposed to truly understanding the situation. The 13:50 bar after the supposed FTT (I have 13:40 as my potential FTT) needs to go higher, not an inside bar that closes below the 13:45 bars close. Once I saw that I got short.
For me it's not about being selective, it's about seeing mixed signals. When I bring the kind of logic you're using into my mindset, it all goes to hell in a hand basket. This piece of data says change, this piece says continuation, oops, the first piece is now continuation, etc etc.
Fwiw, I do not use 2min YM, I do not use S/S, I do not use tick charts. All I use is PRV, my 5 min ES and I watch the DOM very closely. For some reason, discarding all the bells and whistles has put me in a place where I see so much more. Perhaps you need to discard some stuff too?
I anticapated a pt3 because that's what comes after an FTT. So, you raise a great point. Do I anticapate a pt3 or a new dom traverse? At different places in the thread both of these, (as best I can recall) have been suggested.