Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Dec 30, 2006.

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  1. Pr0crast

    Pr0crast Guest

    My thoughts on this segment...

    We are in dry-up, and black peaks are decreasing, and we are experiencing some narrowly bound decreasing red volume, and not much is going on... Kind of looks like the channel is "rolling over." This seems like a high risk area to trade, so I sideline myself, keep a close eye on PRV, and monitor for any formations that might occur to tip me off. I also draw a lateral channel from the high and low of the last black bar, or some sort of FBP type thing.
     
    #6691     Oct 20, 2007
  2. My thoughts on this segment...

    We are in dry-up, and black peaks are decreasing, and we are experiencing some narrowly bound decreasing red volume, and not much is going on... Kind of looks like the channel is "rolling over." This seems like a high risk area to trade, so I sideline myself, keep a close eye on PRV, and monitor for any formations that might occur to tip me off. I also draw a lateral channel from the high and low of the last black bar, or some sort of FBP type thing.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Excellent comments Pr0 whislt keeping it simple. I suppose the princiiple of IF1, IF2 would apply here. Looking at the leading indicator ( volume) we would go short at FBP breakout with increasing red prv.:)
     
    #6692     Oct 20, 2007
  3. Tums

    Tums

    the volume might looked like decreasing red, but they were actually black... the price was failing to go up.

     
    #6693     Oct 20, 2007
  4. ericta

    ericta

    cnms2, How's FBP contribute to conclusion of R2R?
     
    #6694     Oct 20, 2007
  5. cnms2

    cnms2

    FBPs have the propensity to break down. The more bars in the FBP, the more so.
     
    #6695     Oct 20, 2007
  6. You clearly have a firm grasp of how to trade these methods, so I don't want this post to come off as condescending in any way. However, several problems exist here.

    1. The formation isn't an FBP, its a Lateral Formation which began as a Symmetrical Pennant.

    2. Your example and the chart example do not match. In the example you provided, we witness a continuation move down, as price moved into the formation from above. This is not the case with the chart example provided by callmate. In other words, the contexts of the two examples differ greatly.

    3. As Tums pointed out, the Final Two Bars of this formation do not show decreasing red. Price closed exactly where it opened on each bar. Depending on the software used, these Last Two Bars may have shown Black Volume (to some traders) as the two bars closed above the prior bar's close.

    4. Using words such as 'propensity' injects probability into the equation where none need exist. By definition, one cannot 'know' the next outcome based on probability alone. However, clues do exist in the chart above (some you've previously mentioned) which did allow you to know.

    5. Context is key. Know the context, and one can know what must come next. Change the context, and the answer to what must come next, also changes.

    In other words, the above points show, while people can arrive at the correct answer, they often do so for reasons other than they believe. To illustrate this point, I submit the following link:

    link.

    Read the instructions (Some of you will have difficulty achieving what the instructions ask). In a post later tonight, I'll show how your brain captures information - even though you are consciously unaware of it doing so. Once I add the later post, you'll clearly see how your brain uses information which some of you may not even have realised existed, or if so, never felt important.

    Good Trading to all.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #6696     Oct 20, 2007

  7. I can only see the dancer rotating clockwise. I tried to see it differently, but it does not happen.

    She just keeps spinning in a clockwise rotation for me.

    Do I need help?
     
    #6697     Oct 20, 2007
  8. After my later post, you'll be able to instantly do that which now you find difficult.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #6698     Oct 20, 2007
  9. cnms2

    cnms2

    Spydertrader, thanks for your comments. I see that some of my statements and the drawing where not clear enough and they may have not conveyed my thoughts accurately. Sorry for that. In substance the problems you've highlighted don't exist in my mind. :)
     
    #6699     Oct 20, 2007
  10. Even Better.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #6700     Oct 20, 2007
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