that chart is at bottom page, the log debrief is in attatchment before that one. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=75715&perpage=6&pagenumber=14
Today's ES chart with the 5-day 30 minute chart next to it. It's interesting to note that the long channel established at 10:45 AM this morning (pt 3 on my chart), was not broken until 2:05 PM. That's quite a run! Since I'm still a newbie at this, any comments will be appreciated.
Here's my RT. I was feeling under the weather so I was in my home office multi-tasking... As usual it's strict PV. I put in the grey channel to point out that this "intermediate channel" is what I expect to have strictly PV'd on a larger fractal (ie. looks 15M ish). In other words, when I zoom out to a 15M and do strict PV channelling of all the DOMS, I would expect it to conform to the grey channel. SO the question ultimately is where do you look for your FTTs? For me, it is the FTT of the INTERMEDIATE TERM CHANNEL. On this particular chart, it is the 3rd lateral channel (blue). For me the entire blue lateral is the FTT formation. Let's rewind this a little bit. So the first three bars is prep work. Because there is alot of volume, I usually try to just nail the DOMINANTS. The way the first 3 bars rolled out made it seam like there were 2 bars prior to the 9:30 that were missing. I hated the second ,third, and fourth bars which were decreasing volume and broke out the previous bars. TO be honest I was fully expecting bar 4 to establish a R\/R. I could go on and on about this chart and the two screwups on it not including the fact that the chart froze at 3:15 for some unknown reason. In any event, I am adjusting to esignal and will be rewriting the prv to be generic. There is also a small flaw in the indicator but it is negligible. My goal is to program in all the upcoming tools into the chartspace for the benefit of all the esignal fanatics... <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1336744> Regards, MAK
Gaussian simplified. Just ignore me if this confuses you. Remember I'm just learning, and I haven't read anything about this from the experts. I think the principles are unchanged, however. Like many, I've been a bit confounded trying to annotate up/down Gaussian movements. I've been noticing that where I really go wrong is during the laterals. Black and red don't mean much here IMO, but the colors can sure confuse the picture. I feel I've got the big picture in my mind of what I'm looking for, but so often the minor ups and downs of volume during lateral price movement turn my picture into a soup that camoflauges that very forest view I'm looking for. Often I think I've changed dominants when all I've really done is slide sideways, usually at lower volume levels. So I thought why not eliminate these areas from the Gaussian analysis. I don't doubt the Gaussian movement during these laterals is important in its own right, but so far I haven't been able to make sense of it. I think the volume movement in these areas is a more advanced topic. I've attached a chart of today where I've drawn the lateral price movements in a light brown color. The up trending price portions are black lines, red are down trending. The lettered notations are black font when the interpretation is up, red when down. Case is used to indicated DOMINATE, non dominant. All the notations ignore the light brown lines completely, EXCEPT that they reset the volume levels to interpret the direction of the next trending Gaussian. This forest view was very good at keeping one on the right side of the market today. Of course that's just today. I'll be watching it for the rest of the week. I'm hoping by ignoring the lateral movement, it will be much easier to spot the doms and non doms while remaining strict in interpretation.
A couple of comments... So now some of you are beginning to address the pace aspect. This is VERY VERY IMPORTANT!!! When is there a lateral, when is it a trend channel? So we see that we have 3 types of channels. Long/Short/Lateral. The latteral has it's own set of characteristics which are CCC (ie. ending in pennant formations). But again, lets keep to the big picture. So to fine tune a bit, you see in my chart that I only annotated the dominants on the V (ie. when the herd is surging). The channel is simply an encapsulation of the surges and I am always gunning to be on the right side of the surge. This is why I mention tightening channels when we get prolonged channels where PV are cycling cleanly for extended periods of time. As a result, when I get an +PRV, I usually immediately begin annotating a new channel independent of where I am in the previous channel IF this +PRV (ie. dominant) is going against the short term channel. Reason being is that I am tuned to the fact that when a surge comes, it is happening at that point and at that time and in a specific direction. But what does this have to do with pace? Well, with Volume, we are really measuring the strength of the surge. Volume is the real market strength indicator. The market (ie. channel) is not heading anywhere without strength that is sustained. Keep in mind that when we see the market is not going anywhere, we mean, you aren't expecting the short term market to be heading anywhere. Your comments indicate that you are noticing characteristics of pace which is absolutely a conscious matter. If you check my chart from today, you will see my volume has a bunch of little volume bars which I purposely scale my volume chart to be the same from day to day. It is what has tuned me into this pace characteristics that you are detailing. The horizontal lines that are in the volume portion are differentiating pace characteristics. When we see clusters of bars in the bottom two pace registers, we are limited to either lateral or drifting (ie. 4 o'clock). This drifting is largely a result of traders closing out their positions as the market just sits stagnate. Check out the laterals and you will see that if the IMMEDIATE CHANNELS are in the SLOW/VDU VOLUME (ie. PACE) ZONES, they will be laterals!!! All the colored channels are what I call "IMMEDIATE TERM" formations. The INTERMEDIATE is the grey lines which are the IMMEDIATE TERM channels on a higher fractal... If you are attempting to simplify things, then just focus on the dominants with at least MEDIUM to EXTREME VOLUME (ie. PACE)... You'll see few if not any VOLUME bars that are greater than MEDIUM in laterals and pennants... regards, MAK
That does simplify things, and the results from today are very similar, actually a bit better. Plus there are no judgements to make about what is sideways and what is not. Great observation! Thanks.
EstebanUno and Mak both, excellent posts. Thank you. You guys have confirmed things I was seeing and feeling but wasn't quite sure how to verbalize. This has been an enlightening month so far and I feel alot of things are beginning to fall into place. In just a few short weeks I feel more in tune to what's going on than I ever have. Amazing what a few simple scopes, bounds and pace can do to eliminate that fear of falling off the edge, and get me out of the edge mindset. Looking forward to all that is to come... And Mak- glad to hear tool set will be geared toward esig. Not a huge fan, but i use them because they are so widely supported. Currently using the esignal / neoticker / IB combo for futures. Have we lost Spyder? Vacation? I miss his daily charts for comparison.
No, Spyder is in Tucson at the moment. He's working with Jack on various aspects of the futures and equities trading and should return to posting "full time" shortly after the first of Februrary. -Au