A little exercise, what do you see coming next in terms of change/continuation? Please note the volume at the bottom, see if it helps you to assess the situation. No cheating!
SpyderTrader and CNMS2 Thanks for your feedback ! Spyder - Your comments are true. I have trouble seeing the forest thru the trees and about taking deep breaths and practicing my yoga during trading. Spyder and CNMS2 - I do not hold my trades long enough. TRUE. Especially today. The rest of my comments are more directed to CNMS2 but also applies to SPyder. FTT's are not visible, chartwise, in alot of cases. Point 1's are always visible 1 bar after a point 1 occurs. Entering at FTT's doesn't happen much for me and usually by accident. Entering at or near the RTL is possible. As mentioned and demonstrated by CNMS2 there is a trade off between waiting on a pt 3 or entering when the low/hi of the BO bar is taken out. In either case the entry price is ussually very close to each other. Trade 1 premature - Why ? See attached chart. symetrical pennant 945 and 950 bar was broken on the 955 Intra bar and the 955 Intra bar took out the low of the 950 bar. INC PRV. The 955 Price closed above the 950 low and I exited. INTRABAR as opposed to CLOSING LOW iS THAT WHERE I JUMPED THE GUN ? Trade 3 - I hallucinated a FTT where I exited and for the next several bars was thinking FTT. I was clearly WRONG. Trade 6 & 7 - I saw the Long RTL broken and I entered Short when the low of the previous bar was taken out. MY MISTAKE IS THAT I IGNORED VOLUME. Volume was the clue that it was a retrace of the retrace. Trade 4 & 5 - I was trading on the idea that support becomes resistant and resistant becomes support. I was looking for a Long, if I didn't get an immediate VE bar, I can get a wash close to break even at the resistant area price. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE HERSHEY FRAMEWORK. I WAS LOOKING FOR A SCALP TYPE TRADE WHERE I FELT I COULD PLACE A TIGHT STOP.
My stab. It looks like end of retrace, beginning of DOM traverse. since it's noon, if next 2 bar are equal volume and flip color, I'll anticipate a lateral channel.
I'd favor a down turn, and a R2R forming. The FTT, the FBP, the double top of the last two bars, the decreasing volume constantly over the last four bars and overall six bars, ... But I would wait for the FBP BO with some PRV increase ... <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1648604>
I'd favor a down turn, and a R2R forming. The FTT, the FBP, the double top of the last two bars, the decreasing volume constantly over the last four bars and overall six bars, ... But I would wait for the FBP BO with some PRV increase ... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brilliant analysis cnms, that's how I had my trendlines drawn in realtime, once I saw the FTT, and decreasing volume, I compared the prv of the NOW bar with the previous one, from thereon, " I just knowed it"