"no flaws so move pt 3 again" <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=230914>
Jack on change/continuation "Larry and ditch, From what I have seen of people, going from the rookie level of trading to adopting more than one application of market tools for trades is a conscious change in operating. Most people never do. The vaste majority of people just use one strategy all the time. Because the P.V relation comes in two parts, at some point this has to be recognized. Part A is what most people use: If volume is increasing, then the price trend will continue. Part B is not commonly handled by people: If volume is decreasing, then the price trend will change. The corollary that I add to complete the relation is there to just give consideration to all cases that are possible: If the volume is constant, then price will drift slowly downward. This is not very important but it helps. The three trends possible do follow this set of provisos. The "continuation" phase dictates being a trend follower: The "change" phase dictates a reversal strategy. You can peg any person posting by their views on making money. Not many people are able to clear up the myths they have been given in their lives to be able to have a clear deck or foundation from which to operate. Seykota rums "free" sessions on this very matter because it is so important to him. To adapt to making money all the time as the market operates requires the two interchangeable strategies. By keeping logs of stops, you can bring your consciousness of the operating mode of the market to the fore. By seeing the sequences of continuation through a series of signals from a minimum of chosen indicators and the market variables, price (standing for value) and volume (standing for people), you clearly come to understand beginnings, durations and ends of trends. The failures (the terrific punch line of this thread) to "continue" are signaled by commissions and flaws. Like when the lighthouse keeper, on a foggy night, jumped out of bed and shouted "What wasn't that?". All of a sudden, the fog horn failed to go off and was broken, causing him to jump and shout (JS). When you log stops and have sequence lists, you can annotate JS's as flags. That was my HOV exit. That is the stuff I put on other peoples graphs ( I am not good at getting mygraphs through the browse etc). The market is as someone says (driving a car), you do get skilled at it in a KISS way. I got two traffic tickets once. An enforcer pulled me over on a six lane highway and said "you are too old to have a drive a car like this. I was behind you and you changed lanes and passed and then went out of sight. I couldn't keep up with you." What were you doing? LOL I said i was just getting out of congestion and returning to the right side of the road. At driver school they said I should have contested the guy since he didn't record my speed etc. I have a 750 il which has the works (special order performance tires etc). The three transmissions give me flexibility in the mode I choose to get out of congestion and I'm set up to not let the tires spin when 12 cylinders go to work at no mileage what so ever (gas consumption needle just disappears). I think of my car as an antedote to redneck pickup cowboys in AZ; they are surprised when I leave where they choose to dominate the road. The deal is this: as the months go by; we need to get equipped to make money all the time. The deal is a practical one; we just learn to stay on the right side of the market at all times. You will find that this finger tip control comes from minimizing what you have to monitor and consider. Your decision making will be automatic I can assure you. Electronics is helpful these days as well. An audio on the pits is not where it is anymore. ES is not a pit thing even. It is an invention that we can all utilize. A well designed vehicle for making money and going on down the road. In a few months I can suggest to you that you will be able to hear the hydraulics pumps kicking in. This has been a very productive thread. There's no dilemmas that come up in making money by the way."
Compare entries: A: bar BO & RTL BO & incr Vol B: pt 3 A is better than B. Compare exits: C: bar BO & decr Vol; (1st pt3) D: (bar BO & decr Vol) or RTL BO; after 1st RTL fan-out (2nd pt3) E: (bar BO & stalled Vol) or RTL BO; after 2nd RTL fan-out (3rd pt3) D is about the same or marginally better (when exit on bar BO) than C. E is best (especially when exit on bar BO), but doesn't seem substantially better. Best scenario: Enter A, then exit C: profit. Enter bar BO after 2nd pt3, then exit D (bar BO): wash. Enter bar BO after 3rd pt3, then exit E (bar BO): small profit. Biggest bang for the buck: enter A, exit C. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1624593>
It looks to me like the first PT3 should be where the first PT1 is marked, no? It would be one of those "FT3" entries. If that were the case, you'd be looking to get in on the beginning of the bar you have marked as PT2, and this in fact would be the moment at which PT3 had been recognized. And you talk about a bar BO at C... but I see no such thing? You have an inactive LTL that price pierces from above... that's not anything like a BO, unless I'm reading your comments completely wrong.
This is how I would have seen it (my stuff in orange and purple): <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1624793">
Thanks for the clarifications. There is no need to condescend or patronize. I did write "it looks like [you did this]" - I was seeking clarification, that's all. So in summary, yes you do project from P1.
This is what I was talking about: <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1624872>
thank to this journal I start to understand some of 'oldie but goodie' post, see Laziz 3 attachments. And folks there is no need to weight down this thread with its copy or discussion there will plenty of time for that when this thread end. I anticipate even more eye opener courses in the months ahead. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=34558&perpage=20&pagenumber=2
It's not that I want to have the last word ... I would draw the channels and gaussians a little differently. The r2b gaussians show me that the down trend is still on, and that the pt1 is about where Jack drew it. The b2b marks the beginning of the up trend, and it is followed by b2r gaussians. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1624881>