In my experience, for a usually sloped channel, I get about the same entry as if I waited for the pt 3 with confirmation (compare your chart with mine, and consider the filling jitter), but I don't miss a run up. On the other hand I may add up more small losses ...
Do you use a fixed range on your charts? Looking at your charts it seems like a really wild day while mine look like a normal mostly sideways day. I read a post of Maks sometime back where he mentioned compressing the range to take some of the hyper out of trading. Same period on my chart.
In the example you show, it looks like you have projected the LTL based on the anticipated volatility of the channel. This is all well and good. You did not guess the slope of the RTL as soon as P1 was printed, which is what ivob was discussing, in fact you waited for your P3 and cloned your LTL. Do you project a RTL from P1 based on volume pace or wait for P3? The reason I prefer the second approach is that you do not slip into prediction and remain neutral about where P3 will turn up, no ego invested in the prediction or guess. Sure, if all goes as anticipated P3 will not surprise you either way. For some reason people do not read my posts and get the meaning I am trying to convey: 3 examples in 2 days on this thread alone.
Look at today's constant volume ES chart: almost perfectly parallel trends ... <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1623582>
This is a chart made to show how I spot change signal on Coarse Level....... comments are welcome.....
This is how I see change as well. The classical gaussian is unmistakable. Thanks for putting it in an easy to read diagram.
just figure out what the bottom post means, post dated 03-19-05, I am so slow it's beyond scary. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=46628&perpage=6&pagenumber=4