Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

It was something - valuable information about the move in the cash market not being "followed" by the futures. The YM did not move DESPITE a huge move in INDU. Hmmm - move along, nothing to see here!

 

Well, that's true if one believes that Cash can lead YM. I don't have that belief

 

You are not understanding what I have written. Str/Squ is relative price movement. It doesn't matter which one leads to measure the magnitude and direction.

The absence of price movement is the smart money voting not to move with the cash - hence the signal in the right direction.

This isn't rocket science.

 

Totally lost ..

Did anyone make sense of the action so far? Split bars, no clear dominant, cant even begin to draw gaussians in, formations being violated for no apparent reason. I would avoid these situations if I knew how to anticipate them, is this possible?

 

I wish I had a video to show you...

 

Here is my work, off to work

 

Ok,

Let’s see we understand each other, like you said this is not rocket science

For me, if YM doesn’t follow INDU, I don’t see it as a signal. I prefer to see the real moves from YM. So, I cheat a little on the relative indicator, I filter some “signals” which I think are not so valuable and only show the ones which YM initiates the move. The result for me is less “noise”

Best Regards,

 

I think you both have interesting & possibly valid points. Have you done any empirical research on the strength of YM lead str/squ signals vs. cash lead, or are you making an intuitive leap because you want less noise?

 

Hi Pr0,

The only thing I have is my observations of INDU and YM, and what I can say is that when YM moves, ES usually moves along some (mili)seconds after. I didn’t noticed any different ES behavior when INDU moved and YM not.

The normal and most often behavior with this two is that YM takes the lead by moving first and then INDU nullifies the offset (giving a signal). Sometimes, YM moves in one direction and INDU moves in the opposite direction (giving also a signal), other times INDU moves, YM stands still and INDU returns to their previous value (another signal).

By the nature of this tool, of course these are all valid signals. The question here is in what context are these signals meaningful?

For me, I use STR/SQU in high volatile moments and I’m observing it when a 2-pair occurs, at these moments I want to see YM moving first.

But, as with everything, there are no absolut certains and I may be wrong doing what I'm doing, if that's the case and someone has a different view of the situation please post it and let's discuss it.

Best Regards,

 

carry over channels for tomorrow