Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Dec 30, 2006.

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  1. Thank you Mike,

    First, as I posted earlier, I'm NOT trading. I'm telling you where I identified pt3's. I'm consistantly wrong. THis is where a trade would have occurred.

    Now, as to the other stuff, please post the bar you think my ftt is wrong on. Remember, I'm the guy who created the video that teaches how to do this stuff, and Spyder constantly refers people to it, so I suspect I may know what I'm doing. I could just plain be goofing up, but you gotta be specific so we can compare notes.

    Finally, why "peek" at YM. Becuase this is the way that Spyder has suggested learning. WOrk with the basic tools, and while you're doing MADA at the forest level with ES only, look at the finer tools once in a while. THis is exactly what I did. And it served to confirm, clearly, that my then currently analysis was correct.

    And, again, thank you for being willing to dive in and tango. I truly believe there are others out there who can benefit from this type of discussion.
     
    #5611     Sep 10, 2007
  2. Ahhhhh, finally, this is what I was hoping you guys would catch. Every "trade" was in a non-dom direction. I realized that, but was keeping it a secret to see who would notice.

    Now, the problem is, I can only tell it was Non-Dom , AFTER the whole damn guassian completes.

    This, I believe, is my most major problem.
     
    #5612     Sep 10, 2007
  3. Continuing....

    How to tell, intra-gaussian, what is dom and what is non-dom. I can tell you two things:

    1) volume spikes intra-gaussian are very misleading, but you don't know they are outliers until after the gaussian is complete

    2) r2r and b2b are lagging indicators of change

    3) flaws only occurr in the dom direction, yet I'm either seeing them in the non-dom too (how can that be) or something else is going on.

    Oopss, I guess 3 items.
     
    #5613     Sep 10, 2007
  4. R/R

    R/R

    Bob, regarding the Gaussians, looking at your later chart, I also see 12:40 (chart time) as being a trough of a R2R.
    edit: Bob: your last two posts came while I was writing this
     
    #5614     Sep 10, 2007
  5. Here is the flip side:

    Look at late this afternoon. 15:20 bar was left side of up trend. 15:25 appears to be FTT. Then 15:30 and 15:35 are lateral which to mean sets up potential pt3. OK, now, the way I had been entering would have been to go short on +prv on 15:40 bar.

    But wait! that 15:40 bar is just one bar. I don't know what the gaussian will end up looking like. This could end up looking like a big decreasing red, which means we're still in dominant up, so I don't take the trade.

    And the market tanks.

    Does this reveal what and how I'm thinking? Can any of you sort of understand what I mean when I say "contradiction". There are two distinct signals on this same resolution level: one says go short the other doesn't. And this is how I see every opportunity.
     
    #5615     Sep 10, 2007
  6. Avi 8

    Avi 8

    Bundle,

    You are welcome for the tango, .... as long as I can lead :)

    Please post your complete chart for end of day and the YM also if you are going to use it too. I will have time after market close to review and use Photoshop to place corrections along with text.

    I too learned how to annotate from your video and am grateful.

    -Mike
     
    #5616     Sep 10, 2007
  7. This sort of brings me back full circle to the beginning of our voyage. This is more or less the same sticking point I had back in February.

    EVERY bar, while the gaussian is forming, (not intra-bar, intra-gaussian) could be interpretted as either a possilbe increasing/decreasing bar, or decreasing/increasing on a larger fractal. Several days ago I suggested that *2*'s were sort of pointless for entry purposes and that they were of use only to confirm a trend once underway. (Jack stated almost these same words on the Tucson recordings from this Jan/Feb).

    While it's as clear as a bell what the gaussians are at the end of the day, they are quite ambiguous during the day, until it's too late.

    Spyder suggested that I look for a new way to see the things I'm stuck on. I've tried looking at these gaussians forming through several different filters, none of which seems to have done the trick. I have looked for patterns, for linear regression, dropping spikes of some level, defocusing, zooming in to finer levels; I sort of ran out of other ways to change perspective.

    FOr those of you who still might consider my recent posts whining, if you also have not made clear in your head firm decision points, I invite you to do that in order to get a feel for what might happen were you to trade. You might feel different about my posts.
     
    #5617     Sep 10, 2007
  8. I will plan on doing this tomorrow, as I've already made numerous changes to my actual, real time annotations, particulary on the gaussians. And I don't expect you to do my homework for me. WHy not just post even on the FTT you believe I have incorrectly annotated.

    If you don't, I probably won't get any sleep tonight:)
     
    #5618     Sep 10, 2007
  9. Just to be clear, I've attached a chart snippet. Don't worry about this particular example. It's meant to help you understand my interpretation issue.

    Notice the two ways to draw the gaussian. Is this really a B2B? Or is it a decreasing black? Afterall, we all know that the gaussians are to be drawn over the course of an entire traverse, and this is what we see here.
     
    #5619     Sep 10, 2007
  10. Avi 8

    Avi 8

    bundle,

    Post them anyway, I might not be in the mood tomorrow :)

    -Mike
     
    #5620     Sep 10, 2007
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