Regarding Tuesdays' low volume/volatility - it was roughly a 15 point high to low day. That may seem low compared with the how's it's been lately, but we've had an unusual Summer. With the average ES day around 8 - 10 points, Tuesday was a good day with normal volume, though a bit light on the open. Usually the ES chart is scaled at 2 points, on my screen that shows around 10 - 12 points of movement. With all the volatility lately it's been 5 - 10 point scaled. This was just a return to the norm. - EZ
Spyder, The following was my mind set at a particular sequence. My assumption (belief) is that I followed correct procedure, and that my action was as good an action as was possible. I request your assessment so that I can be certain I'm on the right path. Thank you. 15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below. 15:15 In early part of bar price was still in lateral. My eyes were glued to the DOM and watching for a wall on the offer. At 1461.50 I saw 27/478 bid/ask, and kept watching. In a blink, the wall disappeared and I reversed to long.
Here is how I handled it. Had a B2B on the ES (14:40 - 14:50) and a B2B on the YM (15:04-15:10). Only place price could go was up (dominant direction) but was ready to reverse if we got increasing red instead (R2R).
Glad you brought this up. In the spirit of making decisions in the NOW, and NOT guessing, I don't see how you can use R2R or B2B to make a decision, I've come to conclusion that it's more a confirmation tool after the fact. Often as not, as soon as you get a *2*, trend reverses again. And then I'm right back in the same boat I just extracated myself from.
I certainly did not think I was guessing. The B2B on the ES I mentioned (was 4 bars before 15:15) confirmed that the ES was in an uptrend and 15:00/15:05 had decreasing red (confirming the uptrend - continuation). The only change signal at this point would have been increasing RED (PRV will tell you without having to wait until the end of the bar). Now I might really be guessing (un-intentionally) as you say. If so someone let me know so that I can smack myself with a 2x4 so that I remember to not make this mistake again. Also please send me instructions to extract myself from the boat that Bob got out of <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1577910">
I recognize 15:00 bar as flaw eventually, after bar :05 and :10 came out. is this the right way to see this? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1577905>
Example: At any resolution of monitoring less fine than bar by bar, a *2* will, by definition, provide a signal multiple bars (at least two and as many as the width of the traverse in question) after the change has occurred.