Talas: Good work ! note: BO/FBO only happens on RTL. At your "FBO?", we anticipate the market to return to RTL. If the market had kept going up, it would be called a Volatility Expansion. You would have noticed the volume (gaussian) to expand with it. Welcome to the journey!
What an unbelievable day. On the whole I think there has been some real improvement in my understanding and execution of the JHM - YEEHAW!! Unfortunately there is another hand involved here ... #1 caused me problems basically b/c of the huge volume bar on the 11:35 bar. It caused me to think we had a shift in sentiment when in fact we did not. #2 similarly caught me off guard in thinking we had a significant shift in sentiment in effect when we did not. #3 actually the confusion started with the 13:20 bar which I incorrectly (verified with Spyder's chart) labeled an FTT. Not having dec. red to the RTL was confusing enough without having inc. price with dec. black volume (on 13:25 and :30 bars (and for most of the :40 bar as well). #4 Just seemed like all get out to be an FTT, but it wasn't. This one cost me . Honorable mention is the periods 14:30 to 14:45 -- very confusing and rough going.
Here is my attempt at Spyder's assignment on determining continuation/change at the end of each bar. Comments welcome, I am interested in finding out what others have to say about my analysis. Thanks
I have been meaning to dig deeper regarding the MADA routine that I feel I am lacking in comprehension a bit. Can one of the pros critique my thoughts on the process and clear up some things? I dont remember seeing this discussion as part of this journal, atleast not in detail, but I have read a little about it in various parts of ET and the web. I think the Swordsman had it right when talking about the volatility leading to quick spurts in the unanticipated direction to the tune of a few points in a matter of seconds. However, I trust Spyder in that minimizing the time it takes to move through these steps can make this recent volatility a good deal more managable. I guess my purpose is to a] make sure I am asking the right questions throughout the process b] make sure they are in the right order, and c] get input from others as to what thought processes are going on while doing the routine. I realize that different fractal traders are going to have more/less action points, but I believe everyone can sort out which ones apply to their level of depth. <b>Monitor</b> - I think volume is the key here. Are we increasing/decreasing from the last bar? the last few bars? Are the gaussians matching the channels? Are win a dom/non-dom traverse? Have we had a flaw/ve yet? -- Obviously this is not an exhaustive list but I take it the idea here is to gather data and use it in the next step <b>Analyze</b> - So we have determined if volume is increasing/decreasing, does that go for the tape/pt3 chann/carryover chan? Is the data pertinent to the fractal we are on? What type of action do we anticipate given this data? Are we at a point that finer resolution tools come into play? If so, are they giving signals? Is the YM in agreement? Where do we sit and where are we headed in the current tape/pt3 chan/intermediate chan? How about the PRV of the upcoming bar? <b>Decide</b> - Given the above data, the best decision is to _____ . Hopefully HOLD is written in a majority of the time. Exit or stay sidelined if a decision is not clear here and repeat the process until it becomes clear. If all is well, continue to the next step <b>Act</b> - ENTER, HOLD, REVERSE. Get back to the M step asap. Rinse and Repeat⢠.
Thank you 8833broc for sharing your thoughts, chart, and your notes for that time period. Reading your bar by bar log of what you were seeing in real-time really helps. I see on your chart, and on Spydertraderâs chart, there were a couple of flaws that had me confused. Your electronic log is greatâI may have to borrow that format! -river
Hopefully this wont stray too far from the subject matter, but I have been noticing "reversal" bars have been showing up alot lately and 99% of the time if they occur near the LTL, they are great indicators of change ( please spare me a "no shit, sherlock" for a minute ). Im not talking about the bar that goes up but closes a tick or two below the open. The bars I am talking about ( 9:45 11:10 13:00 15:10 ) run a good ways in the dom direction, then retrace and close atleast a few ticks on the other side of the open. Not trying to add a rule or anything, just wondering if anyone else noticed them...perhaps this is so damn obvious I just wasted a post
Thank you for your promt reply. and, swordsman, thank you very much to pointed out what I was about to ask. Hope I can catch this up soon. A light bulb waiting to be lit up. what post? Thank you. amazing forum, thank you all. worst thing could happen is I'm a better trader, and the best thing ...
Parsed answers: I think you are being WAY too hard on yourself. Take a look at bi9foot's bar by bar analysis, I went through about the first 2 hours and agree with his analysis. I think this is what Spydertrader had in mind with the exercise he mentioned. -Mike