I didn't realize how small the file size limitation for uploads is. I placed the files at http://files-upload.com/426359/spydersposts.zip.html I have no idea what else is at this site, so if you go there and see stuff you don't like, please don't complain to me. Access is at your own risk
Your question contains absolutely no inferences with respect to context. A short list of context variables which do not exist in your post are: Up Channel? Down Channel? Flaw? Volume? Volume Pace? Time of Day? Leaving context out of the equation suggests two possible sources of error. 1. You see continuation or change as unaffected by context. 2. You currently are unaware that subconsciously you see only the similarities (example: "then the net result is frequently a loss") in the sequence of events, and not the differences which exist between such event sequences. Context provides the impetus behind these changes which, on the surface, create the impression, no differences exist. The reality is this. "When context changes, the answer to the question, 'What must come next?' also changes." For anyone experiencing difficulty at present, I recommend looking at the problem from a different point of view. Try solving part of the problem first. If you can do that, then by definition you are left with a different problem remaining to be solved. One must understand the differences which exist as a result of context. - Spydertrader
My apologies for the confusion. The context is the ftt that we were discussing ealier: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83604&perpage=6&pagenumber=826 Specifically, the ftt at 14:30 yesterday.
No need for an apology. I apparently haven't provided the clarity required for you to 'see' my meaning. Please note this chart. Based on this particular chart what can you tell me about context? In other words, your general questions (above) may or may not apply to your specific inquiry with respect to an FTT. This one chart has loads of context to consider - some important, others not so much. However, the answers to your questions above do change when the context changes. If you haven't guessed by now, I have worded my answers accordingly in an effort to 'light the way' for you to discover your own answers, rather than, have me simply hand them to you. While I have no doubt everyone prefers direct answers, I have found the knowledge 'sticks' better if I can provide directions for an individual to reach their own conclusions. If by time I have returned from this 'working vacation' (mid-September) you haven't reached a level of comfort with these answers, which matches your expectations, I'll be happy to revisit this question with you in far greater detail. - Spydertrader Edit: Read my previous post once again. Only this time, read it using a mindset as if I handed you directions on a map.
Thank you very much for your efforts, Mr. B ! - coming from one who is in a continuous state of review
The screen shot of ym shows decreasing red volume from the peak, as required for the anticipated FTT on ES. We also get r2r as ym performs its rtl bo, confirming the FTT. We are also in the early part of the afternoon, expecting volume levels to rise after the lunchtime period. There are frequently situations where decreasing black volume appears on ym during its return to the RTL, which may well be an FTT on a faster fractal. In other words, an FTT has occurred on a fractal that is faster than I am monitoring and by the time increasing black volume appears on ym, a reversal would incurr a loss. My apologies if this is a statement of the obvious but losses are inevitable if a faster fractal or finer tools are not being used because our course of action is to "hold" when these flaws appear. David
dkm I am not spyderTrader. I can certainly relate to your confusion. Attached are some of my comments on the chart. Spyder gave you some good advice about arriving at you own conclusion first. I trade at the Forrest level only. I am not proficient at recognizing FTT's off of VE but I am getting better around the BO area and recognizing the Vol/Price importance in determining which way the market will break. One common sense point I would like to make is if you entered on a point 1 do you really care if the BO is on INC or DEC VOLUME? Do you really care about the Volume if the price moves in your on favor at the BO? Are you going to trade out of entering on the peak bar ( bar 1 ) cause price moved in your favor but not exactly according to the text book ( the text book says DEC PRV at BO ) ? I would like to see the INC VOLUME at BO with price moving with volume. When this happens I will happily extend my RTL.
It seems to me that if not confirmed by the price / volume action, your assessment has to be wrong, and if a quick re-assessment still doesn't align with what you see then you should get out of your trade. In your example your RTL is most likely in the wrong place.
I started monitoring the YM & ES last week, to draw channels & Gaussians real-time (sort-of). Per suggestion here in Tucson, I am posting my EOD screen shots for comment, somewhat hesitantly as I am in the very beginning of reading this forum. Technically, I am still on the 1st post reading the Grob reference links! Though I have been repeatedly reading Pr0crastâs excellent summation. These charts are saved every day in a doc file, so that is what is attached. Hopefully, that is not too much of a nuisance. I draw what I see, and only what I actually see, so there are gaps, in the Gaussians, for example. I also try very hard to ensure that channels and Gaussians match (or at least do not disagree). All this is in QuoteTracker, using a real-time feed (without back-fill at this time). BTW even though the time axis label reads 830-1515, it truly is 930 to 1615 EST. I have no idea why it is mislabeled by an hour, nor does it matter enough to chase. In other words, that is simply not what is important to me at this time⦠If I am pre-mature in posting, I apologize. I realize that I am 6 months behind most everyone else, and have no wish to derail the discussion. Input appreciated. Please bear in mind I am a rank beginner so be gentle⦠I wish to learn! Happy trading!