ok - never mind. but you posted: "I dont know how anyone can say that volume is no help. These two snippets from yesterday I thought were such a good illustration. Volume told you exactly what was going on. I dont see how it can get any clearer." and "... but if you were watching prv on the retrace you just might get a heads up on the entry..." so - i thought you could explain more detailled what exactly was "clear", etc. to you. anyway - thanks for your answer.
Just a quickie. Regarding question on volume, we really have to think very hard. Spyder and I spend a fair amount of time speaking offline about how we can improve our efforts and reinforce what it is that we are attempting to get done here. I have alot to catch up on here as I'm taking my first R&R in about 9 months from the beaches of N.Miami. In any event, I would strongly recommend reviewing some of the earlier strict PV discussions. Since we are dealing with broadstrokes not EVERY single V annotation will be flawless. However, the majority will be as expected. Remember, the objective is to get to anticipation. When we get a VDU bar, you are anticipating an exceedingly >VDU bar. WE KNOW based on the PV relationship and PV matrix that the anticipated upcoming large volume bar will have large price change. All of trading is based on the simple fact that without price change, there is no profit. Doing a PRV CONFIRMS very early into a bar that price change is there long before 5 minutes are up. Mentally, you "GET IT" after doing it time and time again. After this period, you are verifying that this statement is true. This is what we are doing now, VERIFYING this relationship. Some of us have done the verification and we are slicing and dicing many ways to allow others to verify according to their own experience. Some will see it, some will not. That is how trading is. Not everyone will get it. Take you what you can leave with what you can take. If that's nothing, so be it... Regards, MAK
I regret posting those charts now as I dont think were supposed to be into volume yet but since I opened this can of worms and I did make those statements I will attempt to answer as best I can. If I am long and the trend starts to retrace and I see that prv/volume is lessening I am ok with holding. If on the other hand price is pulling back and prv/volume is increasing a flag is up and I must consider reversing or exiting my position. Without looking at prv and volume in this situation I would have no clue. If Im not in a trade and the situation arises similiar to what I posted I see price pulling back in a trend with decreasing volume and prv I am watching for the first increase in PRV along with my pressure bars going black/red to enter ahead of those waiting for the trendline break. These are just a couple of examples of the many ways PRV has helped me. Hope this is clear as its the best I can do. As Mak says you need to watch this stuff for awhile before things start to connect.
You remain right on schedule. No need to regret posting those charts. I have no doubt many found them to be helpful. Everyone needs to have the Gaussian Volume formations (along with the FTT) down cold prior to their use of additional tools. Debating with others over the validity of the P-V Relationship serves no purpose. In fact, it is a complete waste of time. One need look no further than Mak's work (linked and updated within this thread) to find 'proof' where a clear relationship exists between Price and Volume. Clearly, enough information exists on this web site alone for people to grasp this concept - and profit from their knowledge. One can no longer claim the concepts have no merit as too many people make money everyday (and post their trades) on the equities side. I fail to understand why anyone who believes what has been posted here contains no merit would waste their time demanding 'proof' when so much less energy is required to simply walk away and not click on the link to this thread. Let's all stay focused on the job at hand - learning the FTT and Gaussians. Know these two concepts inside and out, and you'll laugh all the way to the bank. Remember, the big picture folks, and don't get caught up in the minutia. Good Journey to you all. - Spydertrader
I agree Spyder. The only reason I responded to Gerry is that in spite of all the opposition he runs into he does not get into personal attacts or start calling names so I think he is probably a decent guy, just dancing to a different drummer.
Gerry875 - just some fragmented thoughts from my little corner of the www: Basically, Mak's assesment of the offerings here pretty much nails it down. Some folks will leave here with something of considerable value, while others will walk away with nothing but feelings of frustration and defeat. It's a cruel world out there, and this idea is only magnified in the world of trading. I think it's a fair assesment to say that you have approached this journal from the naysayer's perspective, and that is fine. But the distinction which begs to be made is that Jack, Spyder et al are not making any promises here - they are simply offering information, and very unselfishly, I might add. I'm quite amazed when I stop and consider the amount of time they devote to this journal, and Spyder in particular. Are there ulterior motives at play here - that possibility always exists in cyberspace, and I'm sorry to say, I have fallen prey to it in the past. But, personally, I do not believe this here, and I seriously doubt the active posters have given this a second thought either. Many of the good things in life are a product of trust: marriage and family, friendships, business dealings, etc. And that is also required here. The teachers trust the students will wholeheartedly apply themselves to the materials within the stated context of the "course". And the students trust that what is presented does indeed contain merit. It goes without stating, both sides are making a sizeable commitment to time and effort I believe one must adhere to Spyder's earlier request in order to advance here: we must all put aside our preconceived notions, and approach all new ideas openmindedly. It really is a pointless exercise to try and dispute what is being suggested. Rather, if a person truly does want to proceed, he/she only needs to put forth any question in a positive light, and I feel it will be answered honestly and thoroughly. But does that guarantee that we will all leave as advanced traders - far from it. There are far too many facets to this business for any kind of guarantee to ever hold any weight. Furthermore, there can be no "proof" that these methods will lead to success. We, only individually, can either prove or disprove the end results to ourselves. This post may have "sucker' written all over it. But guess what, I really don't care. I have made my decision, and am here for the duration - win, lose or draw. You, sir, have the same options. Best of luck, and have a great weekend ...
The charts you are posting are very helpful. Thank you. January is the month that we are devoting to the P and V of ES to get straight the P, V relationship. By having this down cold, As MAK says by slicing and dicing, we get to be in the groove and very comfortable. To do the job we are annotating both price and volume and drilling this way day after day. We see from annotations, a product of our work. We see FTT's on every channel (traverse) level. We see that trends are in channels and channels end with FTT's. We see that channels overlap. We see that subsequent to and FTT there is a BO and that is followed by and FBO. Now for the volume aspects. The P, V relation is clear able the two variables. In Boolean algebra, the algebra of logic, that deals with two conditions, we have a simple and comanding elegance that affords clarity to our mind's efforts. If.....then..... Two thens: continue and change. Channels represent continue For now, FTT's represent change. We are spending January on ES 5 minute bars, building an invincable understanding (knowledge) of the fundamental relationship of P and V and we use a vehicle called a chart to do this. Annotating gives us a skill that is relateable to our knowledge. We are continually occupied it turns out. This comes to us as a necessity. We are discovering that we, as traders, are participants in a thrilling partnership that sends chills down our spines. We join. We are so involved with the understanding of the P, V relationship that we can judge how valuable our annotations are for maintaining and understanding of what is going on. Amost unknown to us moment by moment, we are building and being able to see more and more of what is going on and what the market is all about. It is like the three thickness membrane of a cell that has protusions of two classes of proteins through the triple walls, that allow the cell to appreciate his environment by "sensing" the environment and allowing one set protien segments to coil or uncoil so that the other set of proteins can ionize the near environment as enablers of actions for living. 50% of our body energy is devoted to this as we all know. We are using our beliefs to behave. We know how to annotate, now. We annotate price and volume and the relationship is depicted on our charts. Over 5 minutes for each bar we see the life of the market unfold and in the environment of the market that is relevant. We see this relevance by the relative comparison of two bars in volume and two bars in price. The PRV of volume speaks every moment. These compilations of parts lead to a whole 5 minute bar and it is in comparison to the nearest recent fully formed volume bar. We know how the price is behaving in response (if...then...) to the PRV of the volume compared to the prior bar. There is no debate about volume. The living nature of the market is simply its psychological behavior and value as displayed by the intimate and holtistic nature of the price volume relationship. The mind and body of the market is on display, intimately. This chart is salient and essential. The sequence of the life of the market is there to see and become part of. Dominance and retrace harmonize over time. You see the breathing of the market as it is energized and then rests. The market moves on the energy within it. The market serves us it works for us as if we ride horseback to the destination that has been chosen. In January we learn to ride the horse bar by bar. We learn to breath with the market. Volume and price are what we sense, continually as we ride more and more proficiently. This forum coaches externally. You get practice here in riding and knowing the horse you ride. He is price and volume, dynamic, energized, living and transporting you. Get the saddle from the tack room be sure you take care of the saddle and feed the horse. Put on the saddle and reins when it is time to ride. Attend to price and volume and look at what is going on to get to where you are going. Mount. Sit astride this thoroughbreed you have found and have been given for your use. Make it your and make it work for you to take you to your goals. The market is whole, living and dynamic, filled with energy and fed well. When you look at the market you look at the whole market. You see it formation, its health, its coat, its sheen, its bearing, and its capability. You see it all like its owner and you care about all of it. When you look in its eyes you see and know it lives for you and you protect it and savor each ride and memory of how it gives you life and supports your well being. I always loved looking across Washington Valley in Morris county, to see the pinks and hounds in the fields. I loved the Maryland Cup in the Spring and the mint in the juleps. And it is the same as the market everyday in companionbship with a beast that is benevolent and endearing and supportive of all of your dreams and goals. Let it ride. All we are asking in January is that you know your mount, respect and care for your mount; understand your mount. Annotate and log fully, carefully and caringly. Let the future annotations come into the presentride the bar with PRV, see the hills and valleys; smell the market and live it. It goes unsaid above...do not fight it any longer than you need to; at some point commit to riding the horse as the surveyor of your kingdom...it is yours for the taking..... I want to write for you to be what you can be.....
Assuming this snippet is from the same day as Bearbelly's (1/11/07 am), I thought I'd post mine as well to discuss my attempt at PV for the am. Notice my first FTT. Vol had just made a gaussian peak and price was beginning to retrace. On the next bar, price hit the TL and bounced. Although I may be wrong, I still consider the FTT to be valid (because price didn't traverse to the LTL), but price didn't BO. My next "potential" FTT appeared on peaking volume (so much that I drew my first gaussian line) and price turned intrabar. However, price turned again and pushed higher. Also, price never made it back to the TL. So, this FTT became a !FTT for me. After price pushed higher with increasing Vol, the next potential FTT appeared. This time, price turned with follow through short, BO'd the TL on a non-dominant traverse. Next, the current guassian showed decreasing Red Vol and we ended up FTT'ing out of the non-dominant traverse into CCC. I think this am is a good example of PV in the form of gaussians and FTT's. And it also shows where one (me) thought an FTT appeared but really didn't. Sorry for taking up a big part of the page... <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1325626> spooz
____________________________________________________ With respect this journal started at the end of December, if you had kept up with it page by page, drawing traverses, 1, 2, 3s, channels, identifying FTTs and learning about gaussians, believe me you will be seeing what bearbelly is seeing. Visit the chat room during the trading hours, often Spyder whilst playing with Cog will explain something. For example, on Friday, he pointed out " decreasing black in a down trend is a retrace,". I saw it playing out real time and when " decreasing red in an uptrend" happened I had the " AHA" moment. We are on this exciting journey, join us and learn. Good trading to all.
If you were in the market on the right side coming in to this situation you would have a couple of points cushion while making this decision and believe me this makes all the difference in the world. On those days where I have had some cushion coming to these points there was no stress. Entering at these points is much tougher. Normally tho I do not think you would be trying to enter at what might be the top of a move.