Ok, my first chart in a while. decided to get busy with this again after some personal time off. Up to May in the journal. Went into chat and saw it was empty - found out why, hogwise - LOL.... Nice how price stalled at my CO channels - thick red and green. These are several days trends. Colored channels are my trading zones - blue, black, red, and light grey lines are stops.
On two different occasions I thought I was seeing flaws when in fact I was seeing FTT's. I wonder if anyone else experienced the same issue. The bars in question are the (7-30) ES bars 13:35 and 14:35. The 13:35 seemed to me to have a better claim and flawishness, but they both served to confuse my tired little (and I mean little ) brain.
On the 13:30 bar we have increasing red volume as price forms a new pt3 short at the 13:25 high and also volatility expansion. The 13:35 bar shows decreasing black volume as it begins a retrace. For this to be a flaw, we would need to see anything but increasing black vol on the 13:40 bar. However, we see increasing black vol, first on the 13:40 ym bar and +prv black vol on the 13:40 es bar, signalling change. The 14:35 bar is a very similar sequence. The interesting point to note in both cases is the proximity of the 20sma.
A point that I did find a little tricky was when I concluded 15:25 was an FTT. The 15:30 bar did not give the anticipated decreasing red vol so I felt the conclusion to be invalidated. The ym at this time was toying with its 20sma and when increasing black vol arrived, all seemed to point to continuation long. However, the intrabar shift on the 15:40 bar formed the real ftt and the increasing red prv vol signalled change. I am always a little wary this late in the day because of "end effects".
Hi dkm, Imagine for one moment that you are an Super-Hyper-Expert Trader How did you trade that period (from 15:05) ? My opinion: 1. At the beginner of the 15:10 bar I reversed my long trade to short because ES touched the LTL and PRV is saying decr black vol (also YM had a VE and now it has decr black vol) 2. 15:10 bar ends red and 15:15 is red too (exactly what we are expecting). We keep our finger on "reverse" button if for any chance we see incr black volume (what we need to see for 'change'). 3. At the beginner of 15:20 we see black, but PRV is saying decr volume. We know decr black vol in up trend is "lateral movement". So, we wait and Hold. 4. 15:25 bar wants to go higher at the beginner, but there's no volume to break LTL at ES (and at YM) for a 'volatilty expansion'. Peak YM volume bar is lower. We Hold. 5. 15:30 and 15:35 starts with decr vol. They dance between red and black, ending both to be black. YM at this time (from 15:32 until 15:38) is saying Hold, decr volume. So as decr black vol = Lateral, we Hold (possible flaw here). 6. Now, the hard part. 15:40 bar starts to go up, we see incr black volume at first, exactly what we don't want to see, we get ready to press "reverse". But we think: LTL is a bit far away, to reach LTL we need at least a black volume peak like the one at 15:05. Also, we know we should be already in our ND traverse to RTL(retrace). 1 Minute inside this bar tell us that the peak will be lower. YM volume peak bar (15:40) at that time is definitely lower. We start to think this may be a FTT. 2 min after we see an intrabar gaussian shift to red and YM going lower too. We hold. 7. At 15:48 we see a R2R in YM. 8. At 15:52, YM has touched LTL with incr red. At 15:54 we see decr black. We exit the short trade with 5 pnts This may be one of many interpretations. But what matters here is: What's your interpretation of this period if you were an Super-Expert trader ? Regards,
At 15:12 I see an FTT on ym for a short. The 15:10 and 15:15 bars on ES give decreasing red vol as required - all ok. At the close of the 15:20 ym bar (at 15:22) I see increasing black vol, making me think "dip". I am not getting decreasing red vol on es at this time so FTT invalidated - reverse to long. Bars 15:22 and 15:24 on ym show increasing black, dip confirmed. At the close of the 15:26 ym bar (at 15:28) I see another FTT ym. The 15:28 ym bar shows the required decreasing red so reverse during this bar. The ym runs into 20sma at 15:32 so thinking "caution". The 15:34 ym bar shows increasing black, and es is showing decreasing black so FTT conclusion invalidated, rev back to long. The 15:40 ym bar begins to confirm another dip but we get an intrabar reversal on es with strong red prv - change - rev to short. The 15:44 ym bar gives us a dip and the 15:48 bar increasing red vol confirming short direction. However, we have just hit the 20sma es so "caution". The 15:50 es bar slices through the 20sma .....