I have a very strong "SHORTING" mental bias on super up days like today. My logic goes something like this: The up side is spent today and there are many shorts to be taken out on the down side. Please also keep in mind that I am an UNSUCCESSFUL ES daytrader. This bias has nothing to do with the Framework in this Journal. With my confession on the table I attached a spread sheet with my trading notes for today. PS My long term portfolio is doing good. And Spyder feel free to use my postings as a TROLL REPELLENT.
my chart and trades. The interpretation of my label DIP no FTT means I originally labeled something incorrectly (DIP) and ussually a bar later recognized my mistake and changed it to the correct label (FTT).
8833, May I offer a minor suggestion, I see on your excel log sheet you have headings of: trade entering and trade exiting logic. This method is continuation or change. Perhaps changing the headings to, trade continuation and trade change, may help with your mindset. Think about reversing and not just exiting the trade. We are striving to be in the market always to maximize our profits. -Mike
Another thought on today's ES action, I showed the Daily ES approaching a down channel RTL. I asked myself what must I see for this to BO? Increasing black volume is required and I expect to see this on the 5 minute chart, and I expect a lot of it will be required to punch through. Well, starting with the 1530 ES bar we have more increasing black volume than I have seen in awhile, which continued into the close. It could have bounced off the RTL too, but what I needed to see for that didn't happen. -Mike
Can anyone give insight as to the 14:45 and 14:50 bars on ES. Maybe I have my nose smashed up against the screen so I can't see the big picture, but these two bars have decreasing volume in an operating uptrend. In other words the channel drawn seems to adequately accommodate the Price action. Yet the volume decreased. perhaps I am employing a too restrictive interpretation here, but If someone has some thoughts on the matter..... Also in regards to my post yesterday (7-11-07) the 15:40 bar seems to be the last bar of a three bar dip formation. Again I could be applying too strict an understanding to the rule that FTT's cannot be a flaw or part of a flaw. As with the above statement all comments welcome. - guava
Decreasing Black Volume in an uptrend provides Lateral Price Movement. Since we have decreasing black volume, and we find Price siting in an up channel, we would expect to see Lateral price Movement. Now, look again at the 14:40 - 14:50 time frame on the ES, and what sort of Price movement do you see? - Spydertrader
Decreasing black volume in an uptrend can also signify that the volume part of the guassian has peaked and the uptrend sentment is changing. Conversly decreasing Red volume in a downtrend can signify the volume part of the guassian has peaked and the downtrend sentiment is changing. Channel context is VERY important and is one of the most difficult grey areas for me. Being able to make the distinction between lateral price movement vs change in sentiment when looking at decreasing dominant volume can be very challenging in realtime.